Dominant to nearly being lapped? Unpacking Toyota's Tassie rollercoaster

The Toyota project had its most successful weekend yet in Supercars, with Walkinshaw TWG Racing and Brad Jones Racing both winning from pole in Tasmania.

By weekend’s end, however, there remains a sense of ‘what could have been’, given the two Saturday winners fell off the face of the planet in Sunday qualifying.

Supercars.com wrote after Friday practice that Supras appeared to be on the right track, with BJR notably making a big step forward. 24 hours later, the reporting couldn’t have been closer to the mark.

However, such is the competitive level of Supercars, that the form guide completely flipped on Sunday, with Chaz Mostert and Andre Heimgartner buried down in 17th and 18th.

The lead-up

Toyota struck gold through Ryan Wood in Melbourne, before he went one better with victory from pole in Taupō. If not for an engine failure in the Christchurch finale, Wood is a popular Jason Richards Trophy winner.

Toyota Australia's Motorsport Manager Ben Casagrande quipped after Wood’s win that there was a “gut feeling” that it was going to come together in Taupō. It did, with Chaz Mostert also on the podium.

While the car was up to the task, team and driver played a role in New Zealand. Supercars analyst Scott Sinclair discovered one key improvement away from the track.

"In the same race last year, Ryan Wood and Chaz Mostert spent 12 seconds longer in pit lane than the Triple Eight cars across the four pit stops in the race,” Sinclair wrote.

"This year they were 1.7 seconds quicker than Triple Eight. Had the Walkinshaw team repeated last year's pit lane performance, Toyota would still be winless.”

Sinclair also quipped that Wood managed his tyres better, and that he converted his pole position into an early lead. Had he achieved only one of those things, he would be winless.

Another thing that went largely unheralded leading to Tasmania was minor mapping changes to the Toyota V8 engine, which came after a temperature study, testing impact of air inlet temperature on the engine.

The Ford and Chevrolet engines completed the same testing last year, testing across a range of temperatures. While the testing wasn’t random by any means, it offered an intriguing preview into the weekend.

The rollercoaster

In the Supra’s best start to a weekend, four Toyotas ended Tasmania Friday in the top 10 in Tasmania. Heimgartner was fifth with BJR teammate Cameron Hill seventh, Wood and Mostert eighth and ninth.

To that point, Wood had done the heavy lifting for Toyota. However, Mostert and BJR looked to have started strongly in Tasmania.

Come Saturday morning, and Mostert and Heimgartner flew to Boost Mobile Pole for the day’s races. Fords and Chevrolets didn’t get a look in in the mixed conditions, with Mostert and Heimgartner rock solid.

Mostert and Heimgartner duly dominated their races, but did it in different ways. Mostert was untroubled after forcing the issue on Anton De Pasquale on the second lap, while Heimgartner had to work hard for it.

Per Sinclair: "During the first 20 laps, Feeney applied the longest period of sustained pressure for the lead of a race that we’ve seen in the last 10 years. The average gap to Heimgartner was only 0.3 seconds across those 20 laps. A single mistake would’ve seen Heimgartner’s race win disappear.”

On Sunday, everything changed. Wood only just snuck into the Shootout by 0.002s. Mostert was a whopping 0.544s from provisional pole in 18th, just behind Heimgartner. He moved up nine spots in the race, but a day after winning by 5.3s, Mostert was nearly 30 seconds down from winner Broc Feeney.

The analysis

The engine mapping changes came off the back of due diligence testing with temperature. No major changes were made to the engine, either for reliability or power.

But such a day on day change caused a stir. Sinclair wrote: "At the airport Sunday night, I overheard three different conversations from fans discussing the same thing: How can Toyota dominate Saturday and be so far off the pace on Sunday? It’s a valid question, but one that unfortunately doesn’t have a simple answer.”

Where Sinclair landed, was the change in conditions from Saturday to Sunday. Saturday qualifying started with a wet track that continued to dry out. The gap between first and 10th in both those sessions was 0.6s. With tyre temperature and timing critical, those who got it right were rewarded. That was Mostert and Heimgartner.

In the dry on Sunday, the gap between first and 10th dropped back to 0.26s. Per Sinclair, it meant qualifying was more about car set-up and outright speed than tyre management.

Given Heimgartner qualified fifth on the Soft tyre for Race 14, just before driving to Race 15 pole on the Super Soft, the claim that conditions changed the game carries significant weight.

Then, you have to look at the performance of Wood, Toyota’s benchmark between Sydney and Christchurch. He had pit stop issues in all three races in Tasmania. Per Sinclair, he lost three seconds per race to the fastest car. That’s an eternity at Symmons Plains.

The reaction

It’s very hard to pass judgment on a project that is only five rounds old. Wood, Mostert and Heimgartner are all winners, and they all played the right cards at the right time.

Ultimately, the project is far from a polished product. Rival teams are still getting their heads around their own cars — see Triple Eight, which has repeatedly stated it is yet to master the Mustang, even claiming Penrite Racing has a better “handle” on the Ford.

Toyota isn’t out of the woods yet. But no teams are. It’s too competitive. The difference between a front row and missing the Shootout altogether is often a matter of one to two tenths.

After missing the top 10 in Race 15 qualifying, Mostert was penalised over a clash with Jayden Ojeda. Wood also made plenty of mistakes, but admitted there are natural "ebbs and flows" that come with a new car.

For those in the brand new Supras, and those who run them, it’s simple — expect a few more rollercoasters in coming rounds, like those we saw with Mostert and Heimgartner.

Heimgartner himself said it best, given he went from winner to nearly being lapped in a 24-hour span.

“A bit of frustrating day, obviously not what we wanted to the results we wanted after yesterday, but overall positive weekend,” the Kiwi said on Sunday.

"Hopefully we can take some good lessons away but it's nice to have some good speed and win the race yesterday. Just need to try and be a little bit more consistent, and hopefully that bears the up and down.

"I saw Broc in my rear vision mirror and thought, ‘I beat that guy yesterday and now he’s about to lap me’. But overall good weekend.”

Wood remains the top Toyota in seventh ahead of the next stop on the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship, the betr Darwin Triple Crown. Tickets for the June 19-21 event are on sale now.