Expert Analysis: Does Toyota dominate 2026 season from here?

This is an exclusive post-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.

Toyota's historic win, what Walkinshaw TWG Racing did differently to win, and is a former champion back off the canvas?

Toyota's big box ticked

It would be remiss of me to not start by congratulating everyone involved in the Toyota program on the GR Supra's first win in Taupo. Ryan Wood's Race 9 conversion of pole position into Toyota's first win was a thoroughly deserved reward for the hundreds of people who've invested thousands of hours into making a race-winning Supercar.

The technical team at Supercars should also be acknowledged as key contributors to the program. There aren't too many categories around the world that have three different manufacturers, running different shaped cars, without any sporting parity, all of whom have won a race in the first nine races of the season.

There may be some parity tweaks to come in the future, but that shouldn't be a surprise to anyone given the scale of the undertaking and the limited time available before the season began.

The key to Toyota's first win

So how did they do it? What can we actually attribute Toyota's first win to? Is it the inherent characteristics of the Toyota, or is it more Walkinshaw TWG Racing specific? As always, it's a combination of things, but one thing that stands out is the team's performance in pit lane.

In the same race last year, Ryan Wood and Chaz Mostert spent 12 seconds longer in pit lane than the Triple Eight cars across the four pit stops in the race. This year they were 1.7 seconds quicker than Triple Eight. Had the Walkinshaw team repeated last year's pitlane performance, Toyota would still be winless.

Despite the huge off-season workload, the Walkinshaw team have carried the improvements they made in pitlane throughout last season forward into this season, evidenced by both their Taupo and Sydney Motorsport Park performances. 

Wood's additional strings to his bow

There were two other things that stuck out during Ryan Wood's Race 9 win. The first was his ability to manage his tyres. Last year, Wood was ranked 13th across the season for how well he managed the tyres. In Taupo, he ranked 6th.

The second was his race start, maintaining first place off the line. Last season, Wood was ranked 20th for positions gained on the first lap; leading into Race 9 this season, he was ranked 21st, averaging a 1.5-position loss on the opening lap. It was therefore great to see him converting his pole position into the lead of the race.

If he can continue to combine the raw speed he's shown throughout his first two seasons with an improved ability to manage the tyres and take his opportunities off the start line, we'll no doubt see more wins coming his way.

Brown's resurgence

Will Brown's performance across the weekend was somewhat overshadowed by Toyota's win and teammate Broc Feeney's clashes with the Walkinshaw cars.

While Brown's start to 2026 has been indifferent, his Taupo performance where he never qualified or raced outside the top four was a sprint race weekend feat he hasn't matched in nearly two years.

This catapulted him from 13th to ninth in the championship and should give him confidence heading into Christchurch, where the circuit layout is similar to Taupo.

Does Toyota dominate from here?

It's been just under eight years since a manufacturer other than Ford or General Motors won a Supercar race.

During the most recent period where there were more than two manufacturers (2013-2019), between Nissan, Mercedes, and Volvo they only won 4.8% of the total races run. Toyota’s first win came after only nine races (50 days).

Does this mean they'll be a dominant force for the rest of the season? I don't think so, but it does appear that they will be well represented in the Finals later in the year, from which, as we saw last year, anything can happen.

Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.

The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.