Brodie vs SVG: How the championship can be won in Adelaide

After 11 rounds, 26 races and countless battles, the 2023 Repco Supercars Championship title race comes to a conclusion at the VAILO Adelaide 500.

Adelaide is a fitting scene to cap a big year, and conclude the first season of the Gen3 era. Brodie Kostecki is in the box seat and leads Shane van Gisbergen by 131 points, but could this year have a final twist in store?

With two drivers in mathematical contention for the 2023 title heading into the final round of the season, Supercars.com explains who needs to do what to come out on top in Adelaide.

The scenarios

Kostecki will clinch his first championship if he outscores van Gisbergen by 20 points in the Saturday race, Race 27 of the 2023 season.

If van Gisbergen wins both races, Kostecki can still guarantee that he wins the championship with a pair of eighth placings.

With eighth position being awarded 90 points per race, Kostecki would move to 2876 championship points by the end of the weekend. Should van Gisbergen win both races, the 150 points for each win would only take him to 2865 points.

If Kostecki wins one of the two races, he needs only to finish the other, with 25th and last offering 30 points. A win and 25th would still see Kostecki finish with a minimum of 2876 points.

It’s a simpler scenario for Kostecki if van Gisbergen fails to finish on Saturday. If van Gisbergen doesn’t make the end of Race 27, Kostecki can seal the title with a race to spare by merely finishing the race. 

Even finishing 25th and last would see Kostecki collect 30 points, moving 161 ahead of van Gisbergen with 150 left on Sunday. However, given 47 of 48 Adelaide races have featured at least one DNF, there’s little chance of either driver crossing the line 25th and last.

However, if Kostecki fails to finish on Saturday, van Gisbergen can take the championship lead with a top two finish. Victory in Race 27 would put van Gisbergen 19 points ahead, while he would be seven points ahead with second place. 

If Kostecki fails to finish on Saturday and van Gisbergen wins, Kostecki would need to outscore van Gisbergen by 20 points on Sunday to win the title.

Countbacks

One key element in the title battle is the number of victories scored by each driver. Kostecki’s six wins to van Gisbergen’s five has the Erebus Motorsport driver in the advantage.

If Kostecki wins on Saturday but van Gisbergen manages to tie the points with victory on Sunday, the Erebus driver would still win the title on countback, given they would have seven and six wins respectively.

If van Gisbergen wins on Saturday and they end the season equal on points and with six wins each, Kostecki would still be champion on countback of second-place finishes. Heading to Adelaide, Kostecki has eight second-place finishes to van Gisbergen’s four.

The teams' championship

Kostecki and van Gisbergen’s teams are still wedged in combat for the teams’ championship, with Erebus leading Triple Eight by 170 points.

For Erebus, it’s simple — if the Coca-Cola Camaro team can extend its margin on Saturday by 118 points, it will clinch its first teams’ championship with one race to go.

How van Gisbergen can take the title fight to Sunday

How Brodie can clinch the title on Sunday