Big championship shocks? Five bold Tasmania predictions

It's been four long weeks but the fifth round of the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship is upon us, and it promises to be a blockbuster occasion.

With 46 points covering the top three in points, pressure beginning to mount on those outside the Finals bubble, and tension throughout the field, the Tyrepower Tasmanian Super 440 has all the makings of an unmissable event.

All of these key storylines add to what is already set to be a milestone weekend in Tasmania, with Symmons Plains set to become just the second circuit to host 100 ATCC/Supercars races on Saturday afternoon.

A circuit known to spring a surprise, there's every chance the list could be added to this weekend. Supercars.com have picked out five bold predictions for the 2026 Tyrepower Tasmania Super 440.

Championship lead changes twice on the weekend

The battle at the head of the Repco Sprint Cup has ebbed and flowed throughout the four rounds held to date, with Broc Feeney, Matt Payne, and Brodie Kostecki all spending time at the head of the standings. The top three on every key metric for the season to date, they are the key contenders for the first Finals berth and the 25 bonus points that come with it. With all three drivers in supreme form, that battle is only set to keep on raging, so much so that we expect the championship lead to change hands twice across the three races this weekend.

Le Brocq picks up a podium

Jack Le Brocq is currently hanging on to a Finals berth by his fingernails, with reigning champion Chaz Mostert hot on his heels and improving every week in the #1 Toyota. But, there's cause for optimism at MSR, who have been historically strong at Symmons Plains in the Gen3 era. With former driver Nick Percat, they've taken home silverware in the past two trips to Tasmania, including a stunning victory in 2024. We believe Le Brocq can keep the run going, and stay in the Finals picture leaving Launceston.

Tickford gets back to winning ways

Tickford need to prove that they can win races in 2026, and Tasmania shapes as their best chance yet. Armed with a new chassis, Cam Waters could re-establish himself into the mix at the sharp end of the field, having been a race winner at Symmons Plains as recently as 2024. Teammate Thomas Randle, meanwhile, finds himself in a precarious position already for his Finals hopes, but will be buoyed by claiming pole positions in the last two events in Tasmania. Both have the potential to break through this weekend, and we believe one of them will.

Allen claims first career pole

Christchurch was a real breakthrough weekend for Kai Allen, who claimed his first career win in the opening race that had been postponed in Taupō. However, qualifying remains heavily in teammate Matt Payne's favour, with the Kiwi's 12-1 qualifying head-to-head only behind Anton De Pasquale's 13-0 lockout over Team 18 stablemate David Reynolds in the field. However, there's no doubt that when it all comes together, the #26 Ford is arguably the fastest in the field. Riding the wave of confidence, we're backing him in to claim a maiden pole position.

Ojeda snares top five finish

PremiAir Racing rookie Jayden Ojeda has quietly snuck his way up into 14th in the points standings, an impressive start to his first full-time campaign. The team were impressively speedy last year in Tasmania, claiming a double top five in the Sunday race, with former driver James Golding fourth for the round, and Richie Stanaway 10th. Race pace hasn't been an issue for Ojeda this year, having gained more positions than any other driver in the field. If PremiAir can unlock the same speed they did last year, we expect the Juice to be fighting for top fives.

The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.