Why Triple Eight can't rely on Sandown to clinch Grand Final double
When the 2025 calendar was announced, Triple Eight Race Engineering rightly had reason to lick their lips when Sandown was revealed as the Semi Final round.
Since it claimed its very first Supercars win at Sydney Motorsport Park in 2005, Triple Eight has won a staggering 44% of all races. At tracks where it contested a minimum of 10 races, Triple Eight's winning record at Sandown is an extraordinary 67%.
It's a home ground advantage without the home, given the team is based 1800 kilometres north in Brisbane. Given Triple Eight's success at Sandown, they may as well request naming rights of the joint.
So, even with these numbers in tow, why is there no guarantee that Triple Eight will get both drivers into the bp Adelaide Grand Final?
What happened on the Gold Coast
Every team hates losing. For Triple Eight, that feeling seems to go to a new level, given they're serial winners.
Take Whincup's reaction to defeat in the Tasmania finale, when Penrite Racing and Matt Payne denied a rampaging Feeney by 0.05s. On a day the sport was the winner, Whincup didn't take being the loser lightly, saying he was "filthy" Triple Eight missed out.
On the Gold Coast, Feeney was Chaz Mostert's chief rival. Mostert was peerless on Saturday, but on Sunday, it was Feeney's race to lose. However, Mostert got it done again, Walkinshaw Andretti United pulling the wool over Triple Eight's eyes in pit lane. It was an unexpected defeat for Triple Eight, and one that caught the attention of former champions.
The expectation
Feeney and Brown held first and second between Tasmania and Ipswich, and the team is in the box seat to clinch the teams' championship. For much of the season, the expectation has been that both Triple Eight drivers should make it to Adelaide.
However, Brown's recent wobbles have hurt. After losing second to Payne at the end of Ipswich, Brown finds himself fifth and in the drop zone after an error-filled Bathurst and Gold Coast.
However, given the team's brilliance at Sandown, Feeney should cruise into the Grand Final, while Brown should make his way out of the drop zone, putting Mostert, Matt Payne and Cam Waters under pressure. Easy, right?
Qualifying
Certainly not for Brown, at least. Brown's performance in 2025 has been a head-scratcher, with superb race pace undone by qualifying hiccups. On paper, Brown has a great recent record at Sandown. Turn the page, and at quick glance of his 2025 qualifying results, you can see why he's out of the top four.
At a place he loves, Brown needs to nail qualifying. He has qualified on the front row once in his last 16 attempts, dating back to June. In contrast, Feeney is one shy of the all-time 'poles in a season' record, form of which puts Brown under pressure...
The double stack
... because of the double stack.
Brown is ranked No.1 for positions gained in the races this year. However, he needs to find something to climb over Feeney, who leads the qualifying head-to-head 27-2 — the biggest margin of any team this season.
Brown must out-qualify the likes of Payne, Waters and Mostert in order to reach Adelaide. However, the best way he can help his chances is to beat Feeney, which is a tall order.
Why it matters, is because Triple Eight, along with Tickford Racing and Penrite Racing, could see at least one of their drivers strung by the dreaded double stack. If you have track position over your teammate and a Safety Car comes out, you won't have to wait in pit lane. Because he's in the drop zone, Brown needs all the points he can get. If he is forced to stack, it could be a killer.
The counter-argument
Triple Eight is undefeated at Sandown in the Gen3 era, but it's a small sample size, given both races were enduros.
Mostert's turnaround in Surfers Paradise was proof some teams have made gains, leaving the door open to more Finals shocks.
Triple Eight, though, have made gains themselves. After rough runs in Tasmania and Townsville in 2023 and 2024, Feeney and Brown were at the front in 2025. They've found a way to turn their bogey tracks into winning tracks, and there's little chance they could un-engineer themselves into a hole at Sandown, a place they nail more often than not.
What the drivers think
Brown and Feeney have reason to be confident. Brown poled the 2023 event for Erebus Motorsport, and won the '500' from pole last year. Looking at Brown's pre-event comments, the reigning champ is beyond confident of racing his way to Sandown.
"Triple Eight's very strong there. We've been very strong there. It's my most confident track,” Brown said.
"I knew going into Gold Coast that that would be our harder track, we really had to get through that round. But I'm feeling more confident going into Sandown than I was Gold Coast.”
Feeney, though, was less brash. A red hot favourite to win on the Gold Coast, he was beaten by Mostert twice, and believes it won't be any easier at Sandown.
“It certainly has been a good Triple Eight track in the past, but that doesn't really mean anything going there this year," Feeney said.
"It's not just sort of bolting in, and you'll be right up the front. We've got to work pretty hard. We got beaten at the Gold Coast by a fast car, so we've got to be better there.
"I think the track sort of suits our style of how we like to set up our cars… it’s been good for Triple Eight the last couple of years."
The verdict
For all of Triple Eight's incredible domination over the past 20 years, and Feeney's brilliant speed, the 2025 season has shown how the pack has closed in.
Mostert is now there, and many expect him to stay there. Waters hasn't thrown his biggest punches for some time, while Payne is perhaps the most calculated driver on the grid. Then, there's Kai Allen and Thomas Randle, who have nothing to lose, and won't make it easy for anyone.
Triple Eight's smarts at Sandown are something to behold, but in recent years, that knowledge has landed elsewhere. Take David Cauchi and Grant McPherson, who engineered Triple Eight wins at Sandown, and are now calling the shots at Penrite Racing.
A disaster would prevent Feeney making it. Brown is already behind the eight-ball. Triple Eight are the masters of escaping a tight squeeze, but even at their strongest circuit, nothing is set in stone.
