Why Supercars Finals Drivers can (and can't) win the 2025 championship

Three rounds, seven races, 1600 kilometres of racing.

That's what stands between our 2025 Finals Drivers and this year's Repco Supercars Championship.

Of the championship top 10 in 2025, seven have won a race this year, two are former champions, and one is a rookie. Each have their strengths and weaknesses, and they've used the short break after Bathurst to identify where they can beat their rivals to make it to Sandown and beyond.

With 10 drivers covered by 154 points, it's easy to say there's a lot on the line. However, we haven't seen a championship fight like this, where even the drivers at the top could miss out on a shot at the crown.

So, where do they win it, and perhaps more importantly, where will it be lost? Supercars.com breaks down each 2025 Finals Drivers' hopes.

1st) Broc Feeney (+136 points to cut-line)

Can: Broc Feeney has had a year to remember, winning 12 races and claiming 14 pole positions. The hallmark of Feeney's performance his been his brilliant qualifying performance, starting fourth or better 22 times in 27 attempts. Make no mistake, if Feeney qualifies towards the pointy end, he'll be incredibly hard to stop. Of his 12 wins, 10 came from the front row. The other two? From third.

Can't: Therein lies the double-edged sword for Feeney: qualify poorly, and it's an uphill battle. Teammate Will Brown has a superior race gain versus Feeney, and the jury is still out on how he can deliver when the most pressure is on. Only last week, he slid into the wall in Bathurst, and infamously spun Chaz Mostert out fighting for victory in Adelaide last year. Leading from the front and winning is his bread and butter, but when the chips are down, he'll need to put in a big effort to deny his rivals.

2nd) Matt Payne (+106)

Can: If there has been anyone to hold a candle to Broc Feeney this year, it's been Matt Payne. We knew the Kiwi was a prodigious talent ever since he burst onto the scene two years ago, however he has gone to a whole new level in 2025. A home win in Taupo was stunning, fending off Feeney in Tasmania on extremely worn tyres in Tasmania was incredible, but it was his Bathurst win that could be the biggest indicator of a title bid yet. Let's not forget, his first career win came on the streets of Adelaide to close out his rookie season...

Can't: It's been a brilliant season for Penrite Racing, make no mistake, however it hasn't been without blemishes. Now granted, Triple Eight have had their off weekends as well, but the Grove operation can still struggle with ups and downs week to week. For Payne, it's been a lack of qualifying speed that has crept in on the odd weekend here and there; at Tasmania and Ipswich the #19 Mustang failed to qualify inside the top 10 for any of the six races. However, his race pace and Penrite's superb strategy have seen the 23-year-old claw his way back through the field on each occasion. His last two wins have come from 11th and 18th on the grid, but he'll be hoping he won't need to pass that many cars.

3rd) Will Brown (+57)

Can: Before Bathurst, the reigning champ was ranked No. 1 for positions gained in the races this year, with his average gain even better than last year. This performance could be vital in The Finals, given Brown knows how to move forward. With 23 top 10s in 26 races, he's still Mr Consistent.

Can't: Brown is ranked sixth in qualifying, and is ranked 18th for putting his best sectors together in qualifying, which is a big part of why his qualifying performance isn’t good. Where Feeney takes pressure off himself with strong qualifying performance, Brown puts himself under pressure by burying himself in the pack.

4th) Cam Waters (+39)

Can: When he and Tickford are on song, they have proven to be unstoppable. Sydney was a massive warning shot fired at the rest of the Supercars field, with his form and desire to win absolutely imperious. Historically, we've seen Waters at his fighting best on street circuits, and with two of the three Finals circuits being temporary facilities, and the other featuring many street circuit qualities, there's every reason to believe that the back end of the year will play right into Waters' wheelhouse. Across the Gen3 era, Waters has more wins on street circuits than any other driver.

Can't: Can said unstoppable form return at the business end of the season? Since his crushing weekend in Sydney, Waters has gone winless in the following 23 races, during which Feeney has gone on a generational run of 12 wins. He spent the majority of the regular season in a lonely fourth in points, though closed to within 77 points of Will Brown after Bathurst. As much as consistency could get him all the way through to the bp Adelaide Grand Final as one of the four title combatants, wins will be the ultimate commodity. We know he and Tickford have it in them, but execution will be key.

5th) Brodie Kostecki (+27)

Can: A Supercars champion and Bathurst winner, Brodie Kostecki is no stranger to absorbing pressure. The Finals is built for drivers like Kostecki, who is as clutch as they come. He won on the Gold Coast last year, is solid at Sandown, and knows how to go fast in Adelaide. It's tailor-made for Kostecki, who in Townsville and The Bend, was unflappable in the lead.

Can't: Can Dick Johnson Racing lift when it matters most? Last year, Dr Ryan Story insisted the team was building towards The Finals, where everything is on the line. On a number of occasions this year, and in recent years, DJR has been caught out, be it behind the wheel or in pit lane. Most recently, from a position of strength, the pole-sitting Kostecki car fell out of contention in Bathurst.

6th) Chaz Mostert (+18)

Can: Another year, another chance at an elusive championship for Chaz Mostert. Last year was arguably his best chance at a championship since his truncated 2015 campaign, however the Gold Coast was where it all came undone. First, it was a gear sensor issue that cost him seconds trundling down pit lane, before a bungled fuel stop on Sunday completely killed his title hopes. There will unquestionably be a desire to right the wrongs of 2024, and especially before the team move into their brave new Toyota world in 2026 and beyond.

Can't: It's been an interesting year for Mostert, who perhaps hasn't been the consistent race-winning threat that many expected him to be after last year. Eight podiums for the season is nothing to sneeze at, however a number that would be more concerning for both Mostert and WAU would be his sole victory recorded this year. That's not to diminish the achievement, it was a gritty win having barged his way by Brodie Kostecki in Taupō, but both team and driver will need to add to the win tally to strengthen his title credentials. Sandown has also been a tough venue for WAU in the Gen3 era.

7th) Anton De Pasquale (+9)

Can: Making The Finals in his first year as a Team 18 driver is an achievement in itself for Anton De Pasquale. Will Brown is currently Mr Consistent, but De Pasquale is coming for his crown. Before his Bathurst crash, De Pasquale was a model of consistency, and managed to bring home results that were enough to put himself in little danger of missing out. Replicate that consistency, and he'll give himself a fighting chance.

Can't: So, can that consistency be converted into bigger results that can help De Pasquale win a championship? Team 18 need to find more pace for their man, who hasn't got the strongest records at the remaining three venues. Being the man on the bubble, De Pasquale is perhaps most under pressure, so any slip-ups on the Gold Coast could put the light out immediately.

8th) Thomas Randle (-9)

Can: Randle's end to the 2024 Repco Supercars Championship flew somewhat under the radar, but it could be an indication of what might be around the corner. Across the final two rounds of last year at Surfers Paradise and Adelaide, Randle finished second, fifth, fifth, and third, propelling him from eighth to fifth in the standings. If he records similar results this weekend on the Gold Coast, you would expect him to progress despite starting the weekend as one of three drivers below the cut-line.

Can't: Randle has been good this year, but he hasn't had a spectacular moment yet. Only two Finals drivers haven't recorded a single win in their career, one being Randle, and the other being rookie Kai Allen. According to the teams' championship, Tickford bring the third-best package to each event, and with a car so competitive it's not unreasonable to expect that Randle should win a race sooner rather than later. Whether or not a win will come in The Finals only time will tell. The calibre of drivers he has to beat to secure that breakthrough is the absolute best of the best.

9th) Ryan Wood (-18)

Can: In his second season, Ryan Wood has arguably been the faster of the two Walkinshaw Andretti United drivers. The Kiwi won in Perth, claimed some podiums, and most impressively, had a Great Race victory within reach. On raw speed, few rival what Wood lays down, and should WAU deliver on their promise to go into The Finals all guns blazing, there's no reason why he can't pull off a great upset.

Can't: Unfortunately, it has also been a season of what-ifs for Wood. He is ranked fifth in qualifying, but is ninth in points. Fifth versus ninth is worth 36 points in The Finals. The Bathurst heartbreak has put him in a trickier spot that he ought to be. Obviously, you'd much rather be above the cut-line than below it, and many would argue Wood should be higher up.

10th) Kai Allen (-27)

Can: With nothing to lose and everything to gain, rookie Kai Allen arguably finds himself in the best position of all. It has been a sensational rookie season to date, highlighted by four podiums, and his drive to secure a Finals berth at Bathurst in the face of everything Mount Panorama threw at him was impressive. The only way the South Australian can go is forwards, given the points reset guarantees a top 10 finish in his rookie campaign. However the young gun has a history of success throughout the junior ranks, and will be eager to climb the standings and give the established stars a real scare

Can't: The 20-year-old's biggest hurdle could very well be the first one he faces. The streets of Surfers Paradise are not forgiving for first-timers, and for Allen the task will be especially daunting, given he has never taken on the Gold Coast in any category. With 27 points to find to bump his way into the Semi Final, Allen can't afford to ease his way into the weekend, he simply has to be on the money right from the word go. He did so in Darwin, claiming two podiums in his first ever visit to Hidden Valley, but the concrete canyon of Surfers Paradise is a completely different kettle of fish.

The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.

2025 Repco Supercars Finals Series

Elimination Final standings for 2025 Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500

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SC = Sprint Cup winner

EC = Enduro Cup winner