Title permutations: Can rivals and rain stop Feeney clinching the crown?

This is it. After 33 races, it all comes down to Sunday at the bp Adelaide Grand Final.

Broc Feeney claimed the most important win of his career (so far) on Saturday to put himself in the box seat for the Repco Supercars Championship.

However, Chaz Mostert, Will Brown and Kai Allen will be having none of that — today, they all want to take home the biggest prize too.

Given the points situation, it’s Feeney’s championship to lose. With 14 wins and 18 pole positions to his name, he’s had a great season, but he needs to deliver his best performance yet.

That may not necessarily be a race win, but it has to be rock solid from driver and team to get the job done.

Feeney leads. So, what does he need to do to hang on and win?

Heading into Sunday, Feeney has 5214 points to Mostert’s 5191, Brown’s 5138, and Allen’s 5126. The gaps are 23 points (Mostert), 76 (Brown) and 88 (Allen).

On the weight of sheer form and points, Mostert is Feeney’s closest rival. However, Brown and Allen — while they got into each other on Saturday — could still steal it.

Some Feeney versus Mostert permutations are:

Ignoring Mostert, it’s harder for Brown and Allen. If Brown wins, Feeney needs 12th or better. If Allen wins, Feeney needs 15th or better.

Can the other teammates influence the fight?

If Mostert gets the win, Ryan Wood should have his name engraved on the trophy too. After Sandown, Wood proved to Triple Eight and Penrite Racing that he can be the ultimate wingman.

You can debate Saturday's extreme fuel-saving exercise all you want, but if Wood held position on Saturday, and Mostert goes on to lose the title by nine or fewer points today, WAU may have even more questions to answer.

Wood is fast, and is a menace. Sandown was a taste test of what's to come. He made Brown's life difficult, and if Feeney find himself behind Wood again, you can bet the Kiwi will put up a sturdier defence than he did yesterday.

Matt Payne hasn't been at his brilliant best in this Finals Series, but Penrite Racing does have a trump card: strategy. Allen went for a long first stint (31 laps) and two shorter stints, and felt he had a podium up for grabs. Conversely, Payne did the longest middle stint of the key runners with 40 laps. If Penrite Racing plays Payne into the race, watch out.

Want to get excited for more team games today? The top six cars in yesterday's race were all from Triple Eight (first and fourth), WAU (second and third) and Penrite Racing (fifth and sixth).

Will rain play a role?

Weather has been a major talking point, and played a big role on Friday. However, current observations suggest Sunday's race will be largely devoid of significant rain, if at all.

There is a high chance of showers on Sunday, but there's a 30% chance of rain at race start. That increases to 50% as the race wears on, and reduces towards the finish.

For what it's worth, per Supercars data analyst Scott Sinclair, Wood and Mostert have been the two quickest cars this weekend on race pace in wet and dry conditions.

Feeney, meanwhile, could be under pressure should the heavens open. He didn't have the pace relative to Mostert and Wood, or even Brown, in the wet on Friday.

What if points are tied?

If two drivers are tied on points, it goes to a count-back based on number of wins, number of seconds etc.

Based on results this year, the count-back ranking of the four drivers is Feeney (14 wins), Mostert (four), Brown (two) and Allen (zero).

So, if Feeney is tied with anyone on points, he would win on count-back. Mostert would only beat Brown and Allen on count-back, and Brown would only beat Allen on count-back.

So, it all seems wonderfully poised…

Feeney has 14 wins and 18 poles, and is the only driver to have completed every single lap this year. If he finishes today on the lead lap, he will have done the last two full seasons without dropping a lap.

The Triple Eight star has been the benchmark, but today is his greatest test. Given how racy Mostert and Wood are, Feeney will be up against it.

His biggest ally will be his outstanding qualifying form. Qualify at the front, and he can command the race. Per Sinclair, Feeney is still yet to complete an overtake on Mostert at all this year. However, he did pull off a bold move on Wood, which set up his Saturday win.

Brown and Allen both know they need miracles, but this is Adelaide, and this is Supercars. Anything can and usually does happen, and it happens dramatically.

After the season we've had, strap in.

Supercars action resumes on Sunday with Boost Mobile Qualifying at 10:00am local/10:30am AEDT, followed by the Boost Mobile Top Ten Shootout at 12:35pm/1:05pm. The 78-lap Race 34 follows at 3:15pm/3:45pm.