Making sense of Triple Eight's 'lean run'

Triple Eight's ability to put a stranglehold on circuits is a Supercars tale as old as time itself. Think Sandown, Townsville, and in more recent years Darwin.

But, 2026 has been a blip on the radar for Red Bull Ampol Racing, whose highly publicised switch to Ford has come with plenty of niggling headaches for both drivers and personnel alike.

For the first time since Erebus' shock double title in 2023, Triple Eight have a real fight on their hands for both championships, with Penrite Racing now leading the teams' title, and Matt Payne looking poised to jump in front of Feeney for the drivers' lead.

A weekend where both Red Bull Ampol Fords were off the mark in Darwin has only drawn more attention to the team's unusual struggles, with some questioning whether or not the team can turn things around in Townsville.

Why Triple Eight can't look to Townsville form

Triple Eight Race Engineering have won 24 of the 43 Supercars races held in Townsville, a staggering strike rate of 56%. That's only bettered by their Sandown record, where they've won 62% of races contested.

History suggests that they should win again, but history was also on their side in Darwin, with Feeney having won the last five races on the bounce in the Top End.

But, Feeney in particular just couldn't get his Mustang dialled in, recording finishes of 14th, seventh, and fifth. Teammate Will Brown was better, but also didn't trouble the podium with two fifths and a fourth.

Feeney was candid post-event when he was asked if his struggles came as a shock, as brake issues that have lingered with varying degrees of severity throughout the year struck again.

"Yes and no, I'm not surprised in the sense that we've probably got the same issues we've been struggling with for most of the year, so that's not the world's biggest surprise," said Feeney on Supercars' Equip Super Cool Down Lap in Darwin.

"But I would've thought we'd be able to get on top of it like we have at a couple of the other rounds.

"Probably just because we were out of the window, we probably tried a couple of different things, especially today, and that probably helped us a bit to try and learn some things.

"But, man, we're pretty far away from these other guys at the moment."

So, are Triple Eight really underperforming, and if so, why?

For almost 20 years, Triple Eight have had the highest expectations of any Supercars team. When you're a team that has won 282 times since 2005, people are going to notice when you're not winning.

But, are things really as bad as they seem? At the end of the day, Feeney still leads the drivers' championship, and as Supercars data analyst Scott Sinclair said in the aftermath of Darwin, Triple Eight's low would be an all-time high for nearly every other team.

"Of course, their definition of underperforming is in another galaxy compared to every other team, but they are certainly having a lean run at the moment," wrote Sinclair.

"They’ve won 21% of the races and been on the podium 58% of the time this year. While that's their lowest return of silverware since 2006, I would’ve loved percentages as good as their worst throughout my career.

"They didn’t feature on the podium at all in Darwin, but they’ll get it sorted — historically, they always have.

"In fact, the last five times they’ve suffered a podium-less race meeting dating back to 2019, they’ve turned up at the next event to win a race and secure multiple podium finishes."

The constant learning also means that although they are discovering more tools to get the most out of the Mustang with every passing race, teams like Penrite, Dick Johnson Racing, and Tickford have a three-year headstart.

Townsville also represents an engineer's nightmare in terms of what characteristics are needed to excel, whilst past strengths have shifted to weaknesses in 2026.

Per Sinclair: "Both drivers' Tyre Degradation rankings have dropped considerably compared to last year. Feeney's also dropped from #1 to #5 for how consistent his lap times are during a race.

"Both measures point to a car that isn't easy to drive.

"Townsville offers no respite from the tuning challenge. It's a circuit that requires brake stability as well as high and low speed change of direction. It also punishes a car with poor loaded drive, which leads to high tyre degradation.

"Hence the intrigue around Triple Eight's performance."

A Finals shift?

For Feeney's workmanlike start to the year, there is a far greater prize that's top of mind for both he and Red Bull Ampol Racing, the championship.

The devastating conclusion to 2025 doesn't need to be further explored, but one thing that has been plain to see is that there is a steely side to Feeney that has emerged this year.

With Finals fast approaching, and Feeney all but assured of qualifying for the Finals somewhere within the top 10, Townsville has been earmarked as a circuit where the #88 Ford can start experimenting, with an eye to the final rounds.

"Probably at the stage of the season where we probably need to start using these next events as some test days — get ready for the end of the year,” Feeney said after Darwin.

"I think, over the weekend, we probably stepped out of the box a little bit more to just try and understand what we've got in this car and package. We need to keep doing that.

"I'd like to say we're really close to unlocking the magic box, but at the moment we're still searching for it, so we still have a fair bit of work to do."

Brown, meanwhile, isn't so sure that the Finals focus is needed, saying on MotorRacing 360: "I could give you the answer, ‘Yeah, you try and change everything going into this weekend, try new things'.

“But I think we keep it pretty consistent, to be honest. You've got to keep a pretty good baseline set-up and work around it to know what actually changes.

"If you come here on a weekend like [Townsville] and throw 10 new set-ups at it, or 10 new changes, you actually don't know what out of those 10 helped or didn't help."

A champion re-emerges

For all the headlines surrounding Feeney's Darwin dip, Will Brown has quietly been chipping away in the background, with Darwin a potential breakthrough weekend.

For the first time since Sydney 2024, Brown was able to consistently outperform Feeney over the course of a race weekend, as he continues to recover from his own shaky start to the season.

After Darwin, Brown went so far to say that he was beginning to feel the #888 side of the garage return to top form, with his confidence in race trim continuing to grow with every passing race.

His staggering race pace was the hallmark of a historic run to the 2024 title that saw him podium at every round, and it also kept him in the title hunt last year when his qualifying repeatedly left him in the lurch.

"I think we're doing a good job of building and getting more solid results. I think we did a better job in both qualifying and racing, consistently in that top ten this weekend, and I think we did a better job in the race runs — we're out there and able to fight," reflected Brown.

"We got a lot stronger on race pace, so that's a positive.

"It felt a little bit more like last year, where we were really strong and could get through the field... We've just got to build on that and keep putting it all together."

The NTI Townsville 500 begins on Friday.