Expert Analysis: The curious case of Triple Eight's historic low
This is an exclusive post-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.
Tickford Racing back in the fight, De Pasquale silencing the Camaro critics again, another Dick Johnson Racing roller-coaster, and Triple Eight underperforming while leading the championship.
The plot keeps thickening. Darwin's three races produced three different winners — seven now from the last seven races — and a Big Three title fight that could be headed for a Big Five.
Tickford’s fightback
Like Ferrari in Formula 1, Tickford doing well in Supercars just makes the sport better. Across the 20 years I’ve been in Supercars, Tickford has been a constant, and the team that’s pushed Triple Eight most often. Seeing Cam Waters with genuine pace, in both qualifying and the races, and on both tyre compounds, was fantastic and a great reward for the Tickford team.
Waters’ season so far has been very un-Waters-like. He’s qualified worse and raced better than he historically has. He’s moved forward 68 positions and backwards only 14 across the 19 races. He’s also one of only two drivers who’ve completed every racing lap this year. This upturn in speed was no doubt a relief for the team. Waters now has the opportunity to mirror Chaz Mostert’s season last year, which saw him maintain a low profile during the Sprint Cup before peaking when it mattered during the Finals. Waters’ current third place in the championship is a great launch pad for this. The watch will be whether the speed they unlocked at Darwin transfers to Townsville and beyond.
De Pasquale’s critic silencing, take two
At the start of the year plenty wondered if a Chevy Camaro would win a race at all. Anton De Pasquale quickly quashed that by winning in the second race of the season. Fast forward to Darwin and De Pasquale’s Sunday win has again quietened the noise around the Camaro's performance, with another win most wouldn't have expected.
The win was a combination of a faultless drive by De Pasquale and a race strategy that incorporated learnings from Friday’s race where an aggressive approach backfired. A misstep by Matt Payne’s pit crew during their first pit stop also helped De Pasquale, costing Payne two precious seconds and the lead of the race.
Since the Camaro received aero tweaks ahead of Tasmania, De Pasquale’s been the fourth fastest car in race trim across those six races. Looking ahead, the question will be: can Team 18 or any of the other Camaros record another win before yet another round of Camaro performance commentary starts?
DJR’s Hollywood script
DJR’s season has had more twists and turns than a Hollywood blockbuster. It’s been an equal mix of brilliance, self-induced problems and bad luck, all of which seem to appear multiple times at every race weekend.
Brodie Kostecki has won more races than anyone else, yet between each race win is a roller-coaster of emotions. His frustration was evident during Friday practice, when a throttle body issue limited him to just four flying laps. Yet three hours later, he’s on pole for the first race.
Kostecki’s ill-health no doubt contributed to DJR’s Darwin twist. While Todd Hazelwood jumped in and did a commendable job, we hope Kostecki can get healthy again in time for Townsville so that, like all good Hollywood movies, the team's brilliance wins out over the chaos.
Triple Eight’s unique definition of underperformance
Triple Eight are in this strange situation where they are both underperforming and leading the drivers’ championship at the same time. Of course, their definition of underperforming is in another galaxy compared to every other team, but they are certainly having a lean run at the moment.
They’ve won 21% of the races and been on the podium 58% of the time this year. While that's their lowest return of silverware since 2006, I would’ve loved percentages as good as their worst throughout my career.
They didn’t feature on the podium at all in Darwin, but they’ll get it sorted — historically, they always have. In fact, the last five times they’ve suffered a podium-less race meeting dating back to 2019, they’ve turned up at the next event to win a race and secure multiple podium finishes.
Is the 'Big Three' now a 'Big Five'?
The championship had settled into a 'Big Three' this year: Feeney, Payne and Kostecki. After Darwin, though, Kai Allen and Cam Waters have kicked the door open slightly, threatening to make it a Big Five.
Kai Allen’s weakness remains his qualifying performance. Consistently starting five positions behind the Big Three means he won’t win as many races as his race speed suggests he should.
In Waters’ case, one good event doesn’t get you a seat at the championship contenders table, but if he backs it up at Townsville, the track that best represents those used in the Finals Series, he might get a foot in the door.
Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.
The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.
