Craig's Corner: One split second mistake, and it's all over
This is the 12th exclusive Supercars.com column by Supercars Hall of Famer Craig Lowndes for the 2025 season. Seven-time Bathurst winner Lowndes will preview each round of the 2025 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective, continuing with this weekend’s Penrite Oil Sandown 500.
All year, we’ve been talking about getting to The Finals. Now we’re here, and there’s so much to play for. People are talking about how wild it was on the Gold Coast, and Sandown will take it to another level.
This weekend's not about just collecting points and staying in contention — you need to fight, and you need to survive. Every round is its own battle. We've already seen how it can go wrong on the Gold Coast, with Brodie Kostecki crashing, and Anton De Pasquale getting that penalty. One split second mistake, and it’s all over.
It’s hard to predict who will progress to Adelaide. Broc Feeney has been incredible. Each time he has had a bad weekend, he’s bounced back. Then, given what happened on the Gold Coast, Chaz Mostert will be hard to stop. So, that leaves two spots. Matt Payne has been consistent, so it’s hard to look past him. So, that means the last spot will be a lottery between Cam Waters and Will Brown.
Sandown is a brilliant circuit for Finals racing. There are two long straights, but there are some really technical little corners, especially Turns 2 and 3. You've got to really be aggressive over kerbs. The car has to settle, but then you've got to get really good drive off Turn 4.
When the car is in the right window, Sandown is so much fun — but that doesn’t mean it isn’t a challenge. It’s possibly the oldest surface that we race on, and certainly one of the bumpiest tracks that we race on. Drivers who excel on street circuits — which have bumps, low grip and kerbs — will go well.
From that, I expect Chaz and Cam to go well this weekend. Chaz was superb, but Cam seemed quite conservative. Obviously, you can't discount Broc and Will. Triple Eight has great form at Sandown, and they’ll be hard to beat.
Still, the current standings will create pressure for everyone. Cam is fourth, and Will is fifth. They need to step it up, or risk being eliminated. Kai Allen and Thomas Randle have nothing to lose, while Brodie, Anton and Ryan Wood are going for wins.
The guys who were eliminated on the Gold Coast, they won’t care about the championship, they won’t care about the others. They’ll be dangerous. They are the disruptors. If they come up on a Finals contender, who will be thinking about points, they’ll get their elbows out. Decision-making under pressure will be everything.
No doubt, it's not going to be easy for the remaining Finals Drivers. If you want to be championship contender, you're going to have to put it all on the line. In my opinion, while they may have a lot to lose, Finals Drivers still need to be aggressive. The best way of staying out of trouble is being up the front in clean air. That means being aggressive in qualifying, and being aggressive in the races to get track position.
I’ve always said, that confidence is dangerous. Take Chaz, for example. He just had a really good round. His confidence will have grown big time from that weekend alone. That confidence could translate into big attacks in qualifying, and bold moves in the races. Most of the time, it comes off. Other times, it can be your undoing.
Finals pressure may seem a cliche, but it’s true. Brodie crashed, Will made big mistakes, and Anton got that penalty for hitting James Courtney. They were big surprises to me. Looking ahead, I would still be surprised if any of the Finals seven hit trouble this weekend. They all deserve to be there, and the cream has risen to the top.
The ultimate wildcard is the weather. We saw it at Bathurst — it was about being on the right tyre at the right time. How do you balance aggression with being cautious? At Sandown, you need 100% concentration, because you've got to place the car in the right areas. There are lots of different surface changes, and older bitumen lacks grip.
Guys like Ryan, James Golding, Cooper Murray and Andre Heimgartner were incredible in the rain at the Mountain. Like I said, they have nothing to lose, and should the heavens open, they’ll be going for it.
Honestly, if I was a Finals Driver, I wouldn’t be sleeping too easy this week!
Supercars Hall of Famer Craig Lowndes is one of the most decorated drivers in Australian motorsport history, winning three drivers' championships, 110 Supercars races and seven Bathurst 1000s.
The 2025 Repco Supercars Finals Series continues with the Semi Final round at the Penrite Oil Sandown 500 from November 14-16. Tickets for the event are on sale now.
