The cases for and against victory for Sprint Cup contenders
All of a sudden, there are just two Repco Sprint Cup rounds left, and there are only six drivers left in mathematical contention to score the first ticket into the Finals.
The upcoming NTI Townsville 500 and Century Batteries Ipswich Super 440 will round out what has been a rollercoaster first six rounds, with Broc Feeney emerging as the one to beat.
Seven different drivers won the first 13 races, before Feeney reeled off five straight. Obviously, Feeney is the one to catch, and his rivals need a Feeney disaster in the final two rounds to pry the Sprint Cup from the #88 garage.
Townsville and Ipswich are two vastly different propositions for drivers. The first six rounds have been familiar permanent tracks. Up next? A car-killing street circuit, and a joint we haven't been to since 2019.
Six drivers are in mathematical contention for the first ticket into the Finals, so how will it be won and lost? Supercars.com breaks it down.
Broc Feeney
Position: 1st
Strengths: The hallmark of Feeney's excellent form of late has been his brilliant qualifying performance. He has claimed a season-high nine poles, started second four times, third twice, and fourth once. All told, that's 16 qualifying results of fourth of better in 19 attempts, giving Feeney the best chance at chasing victory.
Weaknesses: Feeney hasn't raced in the pack for a while, so should he qualify poorly in Townsville or Ipswich, he may need to get his elbows out. In this aggressive season, that could either make or break his day. It's not to say he can't race in the pack; he did charge from 20th to seventh in the Taupō finale, a day after he dropped from 11th to 15th.
Will Brown
Position: 2nd, 183 points behind Feeney
Strengths: Few are better at salvaging a result than Brown, who has a 4.67 average finish up against an 8.11 qualifying average. Scoring poles has never been Brown's forté with Triple Eight (he has three poles in 43 attempts since joining the team). Since Brown and Feeney became teammates in 2024, Brown’s averaged a 2.4 position gain per race, Feeney a 0.24 position loss. Brown's ability to consistently move forward last year was ultimately the determining factor in beating Feeney to the championship.
Weaknesses: Therein lies the problem of qualifying. Brown has qualified 11th or worse eight times this season, with Feeney's average qualifying result 4.79 positions better than Brown. The head-to-head is a staggering 17-2 in Feeney's favour. Playing catch-up makes winning difficult, even if Brown manages to charge through the field. Funnily, though, Brown has finished behind Feeney on the two occasions he out-qualified him this year...
Matt Payne
Position: 3rd, 197 points behind Feeney
Strengths: Payne's raw numbers are solid; in 18 completed races, he has 16 top 10s, 10 of them being top fives. Of his six podiums, four have come in the big-points Sunday races. Payne's biggest strength seems to be behind pit wall, with Penrite Racing arguably the best strategic team in the game. Think his Tasmania heroics, the Perth Safety Car gamble, and managing the Darwin finale. With the back-end of the year stacked with long races, Payne could be a handful.
Weaknesses: For a driver with the third best qualifying average in the field, Payne hasn't had it all his own way this season. He has started seventh or worse six times and, remarkably, his only front row start was his pole in Taupō. It could be a scary proposition for his rivals should Payne become a force in qualifying.
Cam Waters
Position: 4th, 320 points behind Feeney
Strengths: When Waters is on, he's on. It's 'beat him at your peril' kind of stuff. The Ford star has qualified eighth or better 15 times in 19 attempts, and is second only to Feeney on average in qualifying. Waters' street circuit form can't be ignored, and should he be on the money in Townsville, it's hard to see him being beaten.
Weaknesses: Since Sydney, though, a troubling trend has emerged for Tickford: crumbling under pressure. Waters papered over Tickford's cracks in Melbourne with some inspired charges through the field, but strategy calls undid efforts in New Zealand, Tasmania and Perth. Come Darwin, a botched pit stop cost Waters a swag of points, all but ending his hopes of beating Feeney to the Sprint Cup.
Chaz Mostert
Position: 5th, 479 points behind Feeney
Strengths: It's been a funny season so far for Mostert, who has a win and five podiums to his name. Few are more entertaining to watch while charging through the field, and Mostert seems to drag performance out of Walkinshaw Andretti United where there shouldn't be.
Weaknesses: However, as was the case in 2024, WAU still can't close the gap between its best and its worst. Mostert has a qualifying average of 11.68, ranking him ninth. He has qualified ninth or worse on 14 occasions, and missed the top 10 on 10 occasions. You can't win championships with those numbers, as brilliant as Mostert can be.
Brodie Kostecki
Position: 6th, 564 points behind Feeney
Strengths: Kostecki likes to get his elbows out and can extract results, and through all of Dick Johnson Racing's doom and gloom, he has still qualified ninth or better 12 times. On his day, Kostecki is the absolute best out there. It's just a matter of DJR getting him there.
Weaknesses: Unfortunately, they're not getting him there enough. Notably, he has qualified 20th, 15th and 12th for the last three big-points Sunday races. As for Kostecki himself, he has fallen foul of the rough-and-tumble nature of 2025, picking up more penalties than any other driver. Yes, Feeney has gapped the field in recent rounds, but Kostecki and DJR have tripped up on more than one occasion.
