Sleeping giants? Unpacking Tickford's quiet start to 2026

February 23, 2025. As Cam Waters splashed his way to his third victory in as many days in Sydney, there was a strong sense that this was it, the golden opportunity for Tickford to claim their first title in a decade.

But, form faded throughout the year, perhaps it was to be expected given how improbable it is for someone to win every race in a calendar year. However, to not make it to the Grand Final was perhaps a shock.

Fast forward 16 months, and it's a fascinating contrast. One one hand, the story is the same, Waters being fourth in the championship, but the way that he has got there couldn't be more different.

As for his teammate Thomas Randle, he doesn't even find himself inside the top 10 as we enter the second half of the regular season. It goes to show just how quickly the Supercars tides can turn.

But, how did we get here?

Qualifying pain, massive race gains

This has been the story of Waters' season so far.

Waters is yet to register his first win for the season, and has only conjured up two podiums to date. His saving grace has been incredible consistency, only finishing outside the top 10 twice in 16 races.

What has let him down is qualifying, which is highly unusual for someone widely regarded as a qualifying master, to the point where he's yet to qualify inside the top five this season.

But, such is his form that he has gained more positions than anyone in races, however he knows that he needs to get back to his best form over one lap to establish his title credentials.

"It's been a rollercoaster [start to] the year for us,” the two-time Bathurst pole winner said on MotorRacing 360 before Tasmania.

“Our quali speed hasn't been good enough, but our race pace has been really good. We're definitely not happy where we are, but still looking pretty good in the points.

“In quali, we just don't have the grip. Our car's just not producing the grip as it should. When we get into the race trim, it's quite good. We're still a little bit off, but we're a lot closer.

Randle's mountain to climb

It's been a much tougher run on the other side of the Tickford garage, with Randle facing the possibility of being a shock Finals omission.

The #55 Castrol Mustang was sixth in points through five rounds in 2025, but is only 13th at the same point one year on. More worrying is the points deficit to the all-important top 10 and Finals.

Despite registering a strong podium at Albert Park, a nightmare run across the New Zealand Double Header dropped him from five points outside the bubble to 156 down in seven races, whilst a quiet Tasmania has seen him fall even further back to 177 behind.

Year-on-year, Randle has had the second-worst drop-off of points scored through the opening five rounds, scoring 187 less points than he did 12 months ago. Only Will Brown, who has scored 241 less points through five rounds, is below him.

Randle's qualifying average of 11.6 is only marginally worse than his teammate's 10.7, however whilst Waters has been able to recover ground in 14 of the 16 races held, Randle has only done so in five.

Usually one of the more positive figures in pit lane, the 30-year-old has cut a puzzled and disconsolate figure at times this year, particularly during his nightmare run in New Zealand.

Where to next?

Whilst fourth in the teams' championship is nothing to sneeze at, the fact that the team have largely not troubled the very front of the field this season is unusual.

The emergence of new powerhouses like Penrite Racing, and even shock challengers like the Blanchard Racing Team perhaps exacerbates Tickford's struggles through the first 16 races of the year.

However, with the Finals still in play, it could give Waters in particular something of a free pass for a slow start to the year. The championship run of close friend Chaz Mostert last year is proof of that.

That he still finds himself fourth in points, and ahead of 2026 race winners Kai Allen, Anton De Pasquale, and Ryan Wood, is testament to how well he has been driving this season,

Randle's Finals hopes certainly aren't dashed either, you only have to look at Allen's stunning late surge to scrape in to the Finals last year.

However, results are needed on both sides of the garage. For Waters, wins will re-assert his place as a title threat, whilst podiums, strong points hauls, and maybe even that elusive first win is what Randle needs to claw his way back.

Yet, for all of the questions and attention, there appears to be a sense of calm surrounding the team, though drivers and personnel alike have admitted several times they are not where they need to be.

Mark Winterbottom, who will again join Waters in the Ryco Enduro Cup, was within the Tickford garage in Tasmania, and hinted that both Mustangs have plenty of untapped potential.

"Tickford's got a high expectation, and so they should, that they're championship contenders, so they need to find a little bit, but they're trying a lot at the moment," said Winterbottom on Supercars' The Run Home podcast.

"When it gels, when it clicks, it'll come quite quickly, so I'm sure they're ok.

"It's hard, when you're a good team, and you're a really powerful team, you cop criticism really quickly, so they'll bounce back. They'll bounce back quite quickly I think, I wouldn't write them off.

"Cam's fourth, and he hasn't even pulled the trigger yet on how good that team can be.

"The way the Finals are again, it might work in their favour, and they can chip away as the year goes on.

"Not the level they want, but I don't think the results are too far away."

If Tickford can get back in the winner's circle, and better still make it a regular occurrence, then the tale of the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship might introduce not just one, but two new contenders.

As the old saying goes, beware the sleeping giant.