How latest curveball could boost Toyota's quest for shock Taupō win

Toyota haven't wasted any time in establishing himself on the Supercars scene. They're moving forward, and in a big hurry.

After achieving a podium in just their fifth race in Supercars courtesy of Ryan Wood in Melbourne, the Kiwi is a strong seventh in the standings, whilst champion teammate Chaz Mostert rose to 10th after finishing inside the top 10 three times in four starts.

Of the manufacturers who have joined the traditional GM v Ford rivalry, only Volvo have scored a podium in less time than Toyota, courtesy of Scott McLaughlin's famous 2014 Adelaide podium in the brand's second race.

Such has been the rate of improvement, that Supercars data analyst Scott Sinclair believes Toyota are a genuine chance at claiming their first Supercars win this weekend, suggesting the low average speed will favour the GR Supras.

However, this weekend is set to see the new GR Supra package exposed to the elements for the first time, with rain set to lash Taupō from Saturday evening into Sunday.

Mostert knows there will be an emphasis on rolling out of the truck with speed, especially given new parc ferme regulations for Saturdays at Super 440 events, as he readies for a homecoming of sorts.

“It’s great to be heading back to Taupō this year, my wife is a Kiwi so there is plenty of family support over there," the reigning champion said.

“It looks like the weather could play a big part this weekend, we haven’t used the wet tyre much this year so there will be plenty for us to learn this weekend.

“We have back-to-back practice sessions on Friday, it’ll be important that we use our time wisely so that we can go out swinging for the two qualifying sessions on Saturday morning.”

For Wood, it's a return to an extremely happy hunting ground this weekend, with Taupō the scene of his equal best finish of his rookie season in 2024, with a fine run to fourth in the sodden opener.

Last year he scored his first Supercars podium at the venue, climbing the podium alongside childhood friend Matt Payne, whilst in summer he claimed the Denny Hulme Memorial Trophy with two wins in Formula Regional Oceania.

Now Toyota's leading charge, the 22-year-old from Wellington is eager to put on a show in front of his home crowd, but is wary of tyre management on Taupō's ultra-abrasive surface.

“I’m really looking forward to two weeks of racing at home, we have such passionate fans in New Zealand and to reward them back-to-back race weekends is awesome," said Wood.

“I’ve got some pretty special memories of this track, I got my first Supercars podium here last year and to have my parents by my side, is something I’ll never forget.

“Managing tyres this weekend will be key, the surface is really rough on our tyres so you’ve got to be really strategic on when we need to push or conserve.”

The focus on the weather comes as Severe Tropical Cyclone Vaianu tracks south towards New Zealand, having passed to the west of Fiji. The system is expected to impact the South Island over the course of the weekend as an "extratropical cyclone".

New Zealand MetService states that there is a 90% chance of more than 10mm of rain falling in Taupō on Sunday, with Weatherzone forecasting 54mm of rain to fall. The worst of the weather is currently forecast to be in the morning.

Taupō's only wet race to date was the inaugural race in 2024, which was convincingly won by Brad Jones Racing's Andre Heimgarter, who will also be at the helm of a Supra for BJR this weekend.

Sunday's Supercars action in Taupō is scheduled to begin with Boost Mobile Qualifying at 11:40am NZST, with a Top Ten Shootout to follow at 12:35pm, and Race 10 commencing at 3:05pm.

The ITM Taupō Super 440 begins on Friday.