How accurate have our bold 2026 Supercars predictions been so far?

With five rounds now completed in the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship, there's a large enough sample size to now know who are the key players for this season.

There is also enough of sample size for Supercars.com to take a look back to New Year's Eve last December, and the five predictions we made for this current season.

Some were bold, some were continuations of recent trends, and some were going to leave us waiting right up until the very last race of the year.

So, just how well are our five predictions for the year progressing? Our first big call for the year looks like it's well on course.

We will have another first time Supercars champion

Verdict: On track

Of the drivers who currently fill the top 10 through the opening five rounds of the championship, seven are yet to be crowned Supercars champion. The biggest risk to this prediction is currently Brodie Kostecki, who has been in resurgent form with Dick Johnson Racing, but it's Broc Feeney and Matt Payne who have emerged as the other key contenders alongside Kostecki. Kai Allen is also getting better with each week, whilst Cam Waters, Ryan Wood, and James Golding have all proven to be willing to put it all on the line when the chips are down.

Three 2025 Finals Drivers won't make 2026 Finals

Verdict: Not out of the question

With the amount of change throughout the field year-on-year, be it driver, personnel, or even changes in manufacturer, there was every chance for the pecking order to be tipped completely on it's head. However, as it stands, there is only 2025 Finals Driver who is outside the bubble, Thomas Randle. Jack Le Brocq has spent most of the season inside the bubble, while Chaz Mostert and Will Brown have also been skirting the bubble. The gap between 10th and 11th is widening as the year goes on, a far cry to the tight battle around the cut-line throughout 2025.

Four different teams in Grand Final

Verdict: On track

If the Final Four was to be set at this very moment, four teams would battle it out to have their driver crowned champion; Triple Eight (Broc Feeney), Penrite Racing (Matt Payne), Dick Johnson Racing (Brodie Kostecki), and Tickford (Cam Waters). Of course, a lot of water is yet to go under the bridge for the remainder of the season, but given just how competitive the top end of the field is, there's every chance this does come to fruition. Penrite are the best placed to spoil the party, with Kai Allen currently on course to break into the top four before too long.

All three homologation teams win multiple races

Verdict: Likely

As you would expect, all three homologation teams lead the lead the charge for their respective manufacturers. Triple Eight lead all comers (just), whilst Walkinshaw TWG Racing have hit the ground running with their brand-new Toyota GR Supras, some would argue surprisingly so. Tasked with the unenviable task of following Triple Eight as Chevrolet's homologation partner, Team 18 have already been to the winner's circle, however that sole win in the second race of the year has been a rare highlight in a gloomy start to the year for General Motors. However, slight aero tweaks seem to have brought them closer to the mark.

At least one rookie wins a race

Verdict: Looks tough

The five rookies have certainly been put through the ringer to start their maiden campaigns, however flashes of potential are starting to shine through. The most experienced of the rookies at 26 years old, Jayden Ojeda has emerged as the leading rookie, and could even make a shock Finals charge if he continues to string together results like his season's best of sixth last time out in Tasmania. Zach Bates and Rylan Gray have also cracked into the top 10 this year, whilst Jackson Walls snared an 11th from a wild Melbourne SuperSprint. A win is something else entirely, and with the strength of the field it won't be an easy task.

The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.