Expert Preview: The alarming stat behind Mostert's Finals dilemma

This is an exclusive pre-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.

Chaz Mostert's hunter-to-hunted shift, a rookie on the charge, the strategic quirks of Symmons Plains, and a Turn 6 prediction to cheer on from home.

Strategy options aplenty

The Symmons Plains layout is one of the few circuits that lends itself to the ‘overcut’ which is the ability to gain positions through the pit stop sequence by stopping later than those you’re racing.

The main reason is the lack of tyre degradation typically seen at Symmons Plains, meaning the gain you get from putting a new set of tyres on is minimal. The pit exit is also tricky meaning it's easy to lose time exiting with a cold set of tyres.

There’s also the fact that the margins between cars are a lot tighter leading into the pitstops. Expect to see 60% more laps than Ruapuna and Taupo with cars within 0.3 seconds of each other. 

This combination of factors means strategy is more complex than normal. Combined with Sunday's 200km race featuring three compulsory pit stops, a format I don't ever recall, there'll inevitably be cars squabbling for positions throughout the race.

How to lose multiple places in one corner

Another thing to keep an eye out for this weekend is my favourite method of losing multiple positions. As sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, someone this weekend will try to maintain their position while a car is on the inside of them at Turn 6. It happens every year, and it never ends well. 

If you’re on the outside of another car heading down the back straight, you’ve got to concede, and you’ve got to concede long before the braking zone. If you try and fight it, the gap to slot in behind will quickly disappear as those behind fill it. Once that gap is gone, you’re stuck and one position turns into multiple positions lost, usually in a cloud of dust.

If you’re watching this weekend, word up those you’re watching with and you can all cheer together when it happens. 

Mostert: hunter to hunted

In each of the three full Gen3 seasons since 2023, Chaz Mostert has finished ranked number one for overtakes. Across those three seasons, he’s totalled a massive 34% more overtakes than the next best.   

Now, there’s always someone quick to say, 'You don’t need to overtake if you’re winning', or, 'Overtaking’s easy when you have a fast car'. But in a championship as close as this, and with a Finals format that is less about consistency and more about performing when it matters, the ability to overtake is more important than ever. 

So far this year Mostert’s profile has changed significantly. He’s dropped from first to 16th for number of overtakes, and the number of laps he’s been under pressure, that is, the number of laps he’s had a car behind him within 0.3 seconds, has doubled compared to last year.

The switch to Toyota is no doubt the major contributor to this. He’s gone from the hunter to now the hunted, and his incident with Brodie Kostecki in Christchurch appeared to be a boiling point. That moment dropped him from ninth to 11th in the championship, outside the all-important Finals top 10.

With Tasmania this weekend likely to be a challenge for the Toyotas, how he approaches the weekend, if he is again under constant attack, will be an interesting watch. 

Ojeda’s championship jump

No one has overtaken more cars this year than Jayden Ojeda, surprising given he’s a rookie. This is largely due to his great race pace (ranked 11th) which is so far much better than his qualifying speed (ranked 16th). This race pace and overtaking ability has helped Ojeda leap from 22nd in the championship to 14th in just the last seven races. 

Ojeda’s PremiAir team were strong at Symmons Plains last year, the second quickest overall. If he can put together a strong qualifying result this weekend, we’ll start to get an understanding of how he races when he starts well inside the top 10. 

The points divide

There’s now a sizeable championship points gap between Chaz Mostert in 11th and those behind him led by Thomas Randle in 12th. This time last year ninth to 14th were separated by 140 points, the amount you get for winning a 200km race. This year it’s 216 points. 

Not even last year's Steven Bradbury equivalent, Kai Allen, who came from 19th, was that far behind after 13 races. 

What to expect this weekend

This weekend’s form guide is tough. It’s such a unique track that how teams performed last year carries more weight than usual. But so much has changed since last year. Tickford Racing is the only exception, having had speed last year and no significant changes since then. 

If you want a safe bet though, bet on the fact that someone will refuse to concede a position on the back straight and lose multiple positions on the outside of Turn 6.

Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.

The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.