Expert Analysis: Where Ford stars tripped up in shock eliminations

This is an exclusive post-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2025 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.

The 2025 Final Four is now set after an intriguing Sandown weekend that eliminated three more drivers from contention.

Let's take a look at what went wrong for Cam Waters, Thomas Randle, and Matt Payne, and review the statistical trend that poses the biggest risk to Will Brown's Grand Final bid.

Tickford’s pace (or lack thereof)

Sunday’s race highlights will forever show Cam Waters limping back to the pits with a puncture, officially ending his chance of progressing to the Grand Final. The reality is, he was over and out long before that lap 51 incident with Matt Payne. He and teammate Thomas Randle simply didn’t have the pace all weekend.

Across practice, qualifying, and the races, neither driver placed better than eight. With only four Grand Final spots on the line, those numbers were never going to get you in, ultimately ending Waters’ and Randle’s championship aspirations.

The Tickford organisation will be disappointed not to be represented by either car in the Grand Final. Last year, the team ranked #1 for race pace improvement from the start of the year to the end, virtually matching Red Bull Ampol by the end. This year, they were one of only two teams whose average race pace, relative to the fastest car, has trended backwards throughout the season.

They have generally had the outright lap speed, but their ability to sustain that pace over the race distance has been their defining weakness and the deciding factor in their failure to progress to the Grand Final.

Matt Payne’s cost of engagement

Matt Payne has had a tremendous year, improving significantly across nearly every metric. He finished the pre-finals championship segment second overall, having stacked his trophy cabinet with silverware along the way.

But, in a sport that typically rewards taking an opportunity when it presents itself, a slight misjudgement by Payne ultimately brought about a surprisingly early end to his season. His decision to engage, not retreat, while attempting to overtake a frustrated Cam Waters led to severe consequences.

At the time of the incident, Payne was running in fifth place, needing only an 11th-place finish or better to secure his spot in the Grand Final. While playing it safe goes against a driver's natural instinct (especially when you know you have the outright speed to pass), this moment required a 'big picture' play.

Maintaining his position, or simply waiting for a less risky moment to execute the move, would have secured a vastly different outcome. It was a single, small blip that had maximum consequence. He will undoubtedly learn and improve from this, which is a scary proposition for his rivals next season. Don’t be surprised to see him adding to his trophy cabinet in Adelaide while the Final Four duke it out.

Will Brown’s polar opposites

Will Brown’s Sandown performance was the definition of polar opposites. His 27 position gain across the two races was genuinely stunning, a record-setting achievement for a two-race event in the Gen3 era.

However, equally bad was his qualifying performance on both days. The disparity between Brown’s season-long average qualifying position and his average race finish is statistically one of the largest we've seen in the last decade.

The last title contender to show such a trait was Shane van Gisbergen in 2023. SVG ultimately finished runner-up, but he didn't have the luxury of the current finals format to keep him in contention. Though for Brown in Adelaide, driving through the field for a second or third place finish won't be enough: he needs victories.

Onto 2026 or prove what could’ve been?

All three eliminated drivers can draw positives from their season, yet none will be satisfied with the result. As they head to Adelaide, what's the play?

Do they chase one last moment in the sun (a winning weekend that only rubs salt into the wounds of 'what could have been')? Or do they shift focus entirely to 2026, trying to get a head start on what will undoubtedly be another ultra-competitive season while the spotlight remains squarely on the Final Four?

Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.

The 2025 Repco Supercars Finals Series concludes at the bp Adelaide Grand Final on November 27-30. Tickets for the event are on sale now.