Expert Analysis: Self-inflicted wounds in first Supercars Finals elimination

This is an exclusive post-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2025 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.

The first round of The Finals elimination format did exactly what it was designed to do: shine a light on the 10 best performing cars from the season proper and demand that they prove their worth.

Ultimately, it was self-inflicted issues that ended up knocking out Anton De Pasquale, Brodie Kostecki, and Ryan Wood from championship contention.

So, why were they eliminated?

For Wood, it was reliability — a fuel leak while leading Saturday's race put paid to his chances.

Kostecki's qualifying crash and the resultant damage meant he was a long shot before Saturday’s race even began.

De Pasquale's two driving infringements cost him a total of 43 points — more than the amount he missed the cut by. One infringement was for cutting the chicanes in an attempt to save fuel, and the second was for turning James Courtney around.

Reliability, a crash, and driving infringements were the ultimate causes of these eliminations. None weren't taken out by another competitor or dealt bad luck by an ill-timed Safety Car. These were all issues within each driver and team's own control.

Such incidents are nothing new in motorsport; my list of issues we’ve seen this year currently contains 292 lines. What's different with The Finals, however, is the higher price you pay for a slip-up. 10 cars started on the Gold Coast with a chance to proceed; three stumbled, and now they're gone. But as we progress through Sandown and towards Adelaide, you'll likely need more than just a mistake-free weekend to claim the championship.

Chaz’s statement

Chaz Mostert’s two-from-two performance has emphatically re-inserted him into championship contention. Prior to the Gold Coast, his average race finish position was a lowly 8.9, and his recent form was questionable.

Superior pace secured Saturday's win. More critically, superior strategy, fuel management, and late-race fight on Sunday sealed the double. These are the extra strings to his bow he'll need if he's to claim his first championship trophy.

Kai Allen’s charge

Few would’ve predicted Kai Allen to make it to the Semi Final in his rookie season, especially considering he was 19th in the championship after the first 13 races.

His third place finish on Saturday demonstrated the sheer magnitude of his improvement this year. He successfully managed the difficult task of fuel-saving his way through a 60-lap stint while maintaining competitive lap times. Had he not made this strategy work — like the five others who attempted the same — he wouldn't be heading to Sandown still in contention.

Some of his season numbers are genuinely impressive:

This is highly impressive for a rookie, especially when you compare it to his teammate Matt Payne, who averaged a 3.5 position loss per race during his rookie season. Allen’s ability to consistently move forward during races, combined with a now-proven ability to fuel-save while maintaining lap speed, are two traits we typically don't see from rookies. It could be what propels him to the final round in Adelaide.

Race positions gained and lost: a key metric

How often you finish a race in a better position than you started has quickly become a key indicator of championship potential. The reason for this is the closeness of qualifying. This year's qualifying results have been the most varied we’ve seen in the last 10 years.

To put this into perspective, Cam Waters currently has the second-best qualifying average this season, but his average of 7.1 — the fourth row of the grid — is higher than you’d think. If the best qualifiers are still starting that far back each race, being able to consistently move forward is now more critical than it's ever been.

Gaining positions is Will Brown’s superpower. If all the top 10 Finals drivers had finished both Gold Coast races where they qualified, Brown's season would've been over. His ability to move forward consistently was not only the foundation of his championship win last year, but was key to him avoiding elimination on the Gold Coast when he found himself in position 21 on lap 2 of Saturday’s race before recovering to finish fifth.

The other driver worth highlighting here is Matt Payne. His ability to move forward has improved significantly this year: last year he was ranked 19th for positions gained; this year, he's ranked third. While Feeney has dominated qualifying this year, Brown and Payne’s race craft has kept them squarely in the fight.

The Semi Final Seven

With seven drivers left in championship contention, may the best driver and their team win. Just what the definition of ‘best’ is we’re yet to find out: It could mean fastest, it might be who can pass the most cars. It's likely a combination of both, but who makes the fewest mistakes will undoubtedly also feature…

Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.

The 2025 Repco Supercars Finals Series continues with the Semi Final round at the Penrite Oil Sandown 500 from November 14-16. Tickets for the event are on sale now.