This is an exclusive pre-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.
Wanneroo: The Finals form guide
Look back at last year and one venue stands out as the best predictor of Finals form: Wanneroo.
When comparing each driver's qualifying speed and race pace, their performance in Perth lined up with their Finals form more closely than at any other track on the calendar. Race pace was the strongest match of the lot, scoring 0.77 out of a possible 1.0, with qualifying speed just behind at 0.73. No other circuit came close on both counts — the furthest away being Symmons Plains at 0.33.
Put simply, the drivers who were quick at Wanneroo were the drivers who were quick when it mattered most in the Finals.
If last year's pattern repeats, the qualifying and race pace we see this weekend will be our clearest early signal of who's got the genuine speed to fight for the title in the Finals.
Matt Payne's rise to the top
This year's championship passes 1000 racing laps in Perth, and with it, the mid-point of the season. So what's made Matt Payne's year that much better than his last?
The most obvious thing is qualifying. He's nearly halved his average from 7.5 last year to 3.9 this year. A big contributor is his ability to produce his optimal lap more often in qualifying. That is, stringing all his best sectors together within his fastest lap. Last year he was the seventh best in the field at doing that; this year he's ranked second. Being able to do it consistently, when others can't, makes a massive difference across a season.
And that qualifying average of 3.9 means he's lining up on the front two rows for the vast majority of races. From there, he's losing minimal time through the pit stops (ranked fifth overall) and he's got the #1 ranking for race pace. Put those three together and it's no surprise he's been on the podium in 59% of the races, even in a championship as tight as this one.
Fuel saving unpacked
Fuel saving was the flavour of the month after Townsville, just like cool suits were after Darwin. These debates usually kick off when comments get taken in isolation, without the context of the situation they came from.
Fuel saving is nothing more than a strategic lever you can elect to pull during a race, as opposed to something you have to do. It's exactly the same as looking after your tyres. Both cost you outright speed in that moment, and both are done in the pursuit of an overall gain by the end of the race.
It makes no sense to focus your strategy primarily on fuel saving. Saving 5% of fuel per lap gives you a 2.2-second shorter pit stop time across the two compulsory stops. Sounds good. But to achieve that, you can't lose more than 0.03 seconds per lap saving the fuel, otherwise that pit stop gain is negated. And in reality, you can't do both — save that much fuel and not lose lap time — so there's no point planning your race around it.
Now, if you're stuck in traffic, or you're out in front and losing a bit of lap time doesn't matter, then fuel saving is absolutely a lever you can pull to reduce your time in the pits. But that's a strategic decision based on the situation in front of you, not a requirement of the rules.
What we're actually seeing though, and where these discussions have originated from, is teams either deliberately or accidentally not putting enough fuel in the cars during the pit stops. Deliberately, if you're trying to jump someone in the pit cycle. Accidentally, when the fuel flow rate isn't what you expected and the car gets sent out short. Either way, the only way to make it home is to save fuel, and that's when you hear the coaching over the radio and a frustrated driver lamenting that he can't race flat out.
So the regulations aren't the instigator here. The root cause is the strategic decisions teams are making — or self-inflicted pit stop issues.
Jayden Ojeda's Finals push
Jayden Ojeda has finished the last four events 11th or better overall, nearly halving his gap to 10th in the championship. But he's running out of time to make it into the top 10, which makes this weekend a critical one for his Finals hopes.
The driver he's chasing is Jack Le Brocq, and while Ojeda has overtaken more cars than anyone this season (80) and is ranked third for attacking ability, Le Brocq is the one driver he struggles to pass — just one successful overtake from five attempts so far.
Starting and finishing in front of Le Brocq sidesteps the overtake problem and closes the points gap at the same time. Hopefully for Ojeda's sake, it's that easy.
Cam Waters' statement weekend
Cam Waters' Perth speed will also be an interesting watch. Across the first 16 races of the season, he didn't qualify in the top five once. Yet in the last six, he's had three pole positions and hasn't been outside the top five at all.
Tickford's performance in Darwin was a surprise. Backing it up in Townsville was a warning. If they're on the pace again in Perth, it's a statement — a statement that Waters is well and truly a contender.
Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.
The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.
