It's Finals time. Only 10 drivers can now win the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship
There's no better place to kick off the post-season than on the streets of Surfers Paradise, one of the great Supercars circuits.
Though scenes of cars with all four wheels off the deck might be consigned to 2025, one thing remains the same: the concrete canyon will punish the smallest of mistakes.
Trying to pick how the Finals opener will play out in a year that has been notoriously unpredictable is just asking for trouble...
One driver lifts out of drop zone
Chaz Mostert, Ryan Wood and Jack Le Brocq all arrive on the Gold Coast needing to lift themselves out of the elimination zone. Mostert and Wood will be quietly confident given their imperious form at the 2025 Gold Coast event, where Mostert won both races, while Wood could have won his way through on the Saturday had it not been for a fuel leak. Le Brocq, meanwhile, has nothing to lose as the 10th seed, with Matt Stone vowing to "throw everything we have at getting JLB through to the next Finals round."
Camaro crashes out in straight sets
However, to do that, Le Brocq needs to turn around his Surfers Paradise form, having an average finish of just 16.7 in the Gen3 era, having finished 15th in the two races last year with Erebus. As outlined above, we project one of the cars from the drop zone will bump their way in to Sandown, and for one to go in, another must come out. Anton De Pasquale is now on the bubble following his Bathurst heartbreak, and was eliminated on the Gold Coast last year, admittedly after two penalties. How Team 18 rebound after Bathurst will be telling.
Finals driver crashes in qualifying
Last year, Saturday qualifying proved to be absolutely chaotic for the Finals Drivers. First, it was Brodie Kostecki ruling himself out of Saturday's race in the second segment of qualifying, before Will Brown got the Beach Chicane all wrong in the corresponding Top Ten Shootout. The slightest mistakes on the streets of Surfers Paradise have the biggest consequences, and for the top 10 it could be the difference between your championship hopes remaining alive or fading out. It's the ultimate risk vs reward.
Brown leaves as top seed
Whether or not Will Brown's early season struggles were entirely down to Restrictorgate or not may never be known, but what isn't up for debate is that his season has had new life breathed into it. Since Ipswich, Brown has finishes of third, first, third, fourth, and second, and has charged from being well outside the top 10 at the start of the season to now being the third seed in Finals. Given his rapid upwards trajectory, he could very well be back up at the very top come Sunday, a remarkable turnaround within the space of half a season.
Waters wins through to Sandown
Bathurst was nothing short of disastrous for Tickford Racing. Cam Waters failed to fire a shot, while Thomas Randle missed the Finals altogether. However, that could be a silver lining for Tickford, who could throw all their eggs in the Waters basket if they so choose. After all, we saw Walkinshaw manage a similar situation superbly last year after Wood's elimination, with Mostert winning the title. Townsville was also one of Waters' best weekends of the season, including a race win. Another one of those, and he's straight through to Sandown.
The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.
