Expert Preview: Beware the Darwin dive bomb

This is the sixth exclusive pre-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2025 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective, continuing with this weekend’s betr Darwin Triple Crown.

Things to watch out for this weekend in Darwin: Clouds, the ‘dive bomb’ and aggressive race strategies. If someone can combine all these things, we might even see Broc Feeney being put under pressure!

A guide to overtaking in Darwin

The combination of Darwin’s heat and the layout of the Hidden Valley circuit make it one of the more challenging places to overtake. The high track temperature, exaggerated when you are right behind another car and trying to pass, pushes the tyres over their ideal operating temperature, effectively robbing you of that crucial bit of grip needed to make the overtake.

There’s two ways to overcome this, the first is the ‘dive bomb’ method. It requires a bigger lunge than normal, diving down the inside to muscle your way through. Unsurprisingly, this aggressive tactic directly contributes to Hidden Valley's 68% Safety Car probability – the highest of any track we've visited this year.

The alternative method is to use pit stop strategy to engineer a substantial tyre offset to those you are racing. The logic is simple: if you can't make a pass before your stop, you're probably not going to after, assuming you pit in sync. So, the smarter play is to build a hefty tyre differential (five-plus laps) over those you’re racing. It's a nerve-wracking call for teams, as you're effectively sacrificing track position to cars behind you on fresher rubber, forcing you to back yourself to drive back past and gain ground. 

However, a saving grace is that the undercut isn't as powerful at Darwin; of all tracks on the 2025 calendar, Darwin is ranked ninth of 13. You’ll also need a car that exits the last corner well and is strong under brakes into Turn 1. Around 48% of all the overtakes happen at Turn 1, so if you’re coming back through the field, ideally you’re overtaking a car each lap into Turn 1, then spending the rest of the lap closing the margin to the next car. 

Cloud cover = lap time gain

Darwin's heat is a given, but come qualifying, teams aren't just hoping for cloud cover to cool down. They're looking to the sky for a crucial lap time advantage.

Even a sliver of cloud cover over the Hidden Valley circuit during qualifying translates directly into free lap time. Without getting bogged down in the 'why' (I can’t explain it anyway), the simple truth is: when Hidden Valley's surface is out of direct sunlight, the tyres just switch on, and you pick up speed. Perfectly timing a lap with a fleeting cloud is not easy, but the payoff is immense. If it happens on your shootout lap, you've essentially won the lottery.

Feeney’s qualifying performance

Broc Feeney's qualifying form right now is mega, regardless of which tyre compound he’s on. With an average of 3.8, Feeney is qualifying a world away from everyone else; the next best is Cam Waters at 6.7. To underscore his incredible pace, of the drivers who’ve won the last 10 Supercars championships, only Scott McLaughlin had a better qualifying average.

As he continues this phenomenal run, Feeney's championship contenders must make sure they’re starting alongside him to make his races as challenging as possible. Or, failing that, just hope for bright sunshine on Feeney's qualifying lap and cloud cover for everyone else!

Watch for Team 18 

Team 18 will be an interesting watch this weekend. The momentum is finally shifting for David Reynolds after a challenging start to the season, and Anton De Pasquale has seemingly recaptured the pace he displayed in the first seven races this year. Both drivers are multiple Darwin race winners. The team also won with Mark Winterbottom in 2023 and backed it up with a second place last year. This circuit rewards a car that’s running near the front more than most. Qualifying will therefore dictate Team 18’s shot at another podium this time around. 

Safety Car percentage

After Matt Payne and James Courtney's Safety Car jackpot in Perth, you can bet that the 68% Safety Car chance in Darwin is on everyone except the leader's mind. Expect some teams to play chicken with their pit stops, delaying 'just a few more laps' in the hope of that game-changing Safety Car. A regular pit stop in Perth cost about 24 seconds. Payne and Courtney's stop under the Safety Car only cost them 12 seconds. The payoff if it lands perfectly is huge, but the chances of it happening exactly when you're looking for it? Slim. Decisions, decisions…

Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.

The 2025 Repco Supercars Championship will resume at the betr Darwin Triple Crown on June 20-22. Tickets are on sale now.