Craig's Corner: How an unpredictable season gets even harder to pick

This is the third exclusive Supercars.com column by Supercars Hall of Famer Craig Lowndes for the 2025 season. Seven-time Bathurst winner Lowndes will preview each round of the 2025 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective, continuing with this weekend’s ITM Taupō Super 440.

It’s been an action-packed and unpredictable start to the season, and I expect that to continue in New Zealand this weekend. We’ve had four drivers from three teams in victory lane already!

The championship is well and truly open. Will Brown is back on top, but only by seven points over Cam Waters. Broc Feeney is third, 42 points behind Cam. Any time you have three drivers covered by 49 points, it’s going to be some kind of battle.

One thing we’ve seen so far are how big the swings can be. Tickford Racing dominated Sydney, while Matt Stone Racing had a shocker. Come Melbourne, and the tables completely turned. It’s so hard to predict what will happen next!

We saw that last year in New Zealand, when Andre Heimgartner and Brad Jones Racing won the first race. I don’t think many people would’ve seen that coming, and don’t be surprised if a new team is up the front this weekend.

Importantly, some big teams haven't thrown a punch yet. Dick Johnson Racing, Walkinshaw Andretti United and Grove Racing have been solid, but they won’t be keen on racing for fourth any longer.

So, while it looks like Will, Cam and Broc are the ones to beat on paper, I’m intrigued as to how Matt Payne, Brodie Kostecki and Chaz Mostert go this weekend.

I think Matt will be one of the big contenders. He knows the circuit well, and he scored a pole last year. The Grove Racing engineering brains trust of Alistair McVean, Grant McPherson and David Cauchi will have done their homework, so watch out for the #19.

Brodie still needs to show that his decision to join DJR was the right one. He'll have pressure on him to perform, because that's why DJR signed him. He’s there to elevate the team and elevate their results. But again, knowing Brodie, he's a pretty chilled, relaxed guy. He'll just take it in his stride and he'll just go and do what he naturally does, which is drive the wheels off it.

Both Matt and Brodie have had solid starts to the season, but haven’t claimed a podium yet. If there’s a place to kickstart their seasosn, it’s here. Watch for them to try and make their mark on the championship battle.

Down at WAU Chaz is starting to be pushed by Ryan Wood, who is doing a good job. I think Ryan is pushing Chaz in more ways that we don't realise. When you have a young guy like Ryan come into the team, all they're focused on is winning. When you have two teammates that are very competitive, like Chaz and Ryan are, it just elevates the team. That means better reliability and decision-making at that team is coming, and I think they’ll be knocking on the door of race wins.

It’s been hugely competitive. So, why not throw a new tyre and new race weekend format into the mix!

The new Super 440 format is going to be a headache for teams. I expect some smaller teams might benefit and get a shock result here and there.

Any time you throw a new element into the mix, like a new tyre, it's up to teams and drivers to get on top of it. Teams will need to try and understand the new tyre and what it needs in different phases, whether that's qualifying or in race. But then again, it's up to drivers to understand it and maximise it.

Taupō is such a busy circuit to debut this new format, and have two different tyres on offer. While it’s a high degradation circuit, Taupō has some short corners, a long back straight and a tricky back chicane. There isn’t much time to catch your breath.

We’ve already seen what Taupō can dish up. Last year, we had a shock winner in Heimgartner, some amazing racing, and even incidents off the start line with Cam Waters and Tim Slade.

Putting myself in the driver's seat, it’ll be a big challenge to qualify on one tyre compound and, 10 minutes later, bolt on a different compound. It will feel completely different. It’s also the first time drivers will use the Super Soft this year, and it will be in qualifying, no less!

Drivers need to quickly understand where the limit is of both tyre compounds. What does that mean? Well, that’s braking, understanding lateral grip, and phasing the tyre to get it ready for the start of the lap. You can easily overdrive the tyre, thinking that you're gonna have this extra grip when it doesn't come.

We’ve seen already this season that a small little mistake can be very costly for your whole weekend. Look at Cam at the Grand Prix — he was buried in the pack, and put himself under serious pressure to maximise his race results.

I have no doubt that the New Zealand crowd will pump up the New Zealand drivers. There has always been a strong trans-Tasman rivalry in Supercars, and it stems back to when Murph took us all on at Pukekohe.

There's definitely some pride at stake for the New Zealand drivers. Seeing Andre lift last year, through driving rain and under pressure from behind, was incredibly impressive.

A lot of good Aussie drivers have gone to New Zealand and weren’t able to crack it over there. For Aussies, it feels like a genuine away event, because of the passionate support from the Kiwi fans. They are loud and proud, and they love their Supercars!

That support makes it more difficult for some Aussie drivers to transit over the ditch. Whether it’s Pukekohe, Hamilton or Taupō, you truly feel like you’re up against it!

Of course, racing in New Zealand means we’re racing for Jason Richards. This weekend marks the 10th time that the JR Trophy will be won, and it means so much to the drivers. Recently, we saw it at the Grand Prix with the Larry Perkins Trophy. You lift when you’re chasing more than race wins. Jason was an unbelievable driver, and we lost him far too early.

Racing against JR and spending some time with him was always very special. I come back to pride — just look to when Shane van Gisbergen won the trophy, and how emotional he was. You see that pride and the passion bleed through, and how much it means to Kiwi drivers.

Racing for JR will elevate all the New Zealand drivers, and riding on emotion, they’ll be hard to stop.