Expert Analysis: What each driver needs to do to win the championship
This is an exclusive pre-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2025 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.
The 2025 Final Four are set, ready to fight for the championship at this weekend's bp Adelaide Grand Final. Let’s take a look at the four combatants and what they need to do in order to claim the championship trophy.
Broc Feeney
Broc Feeney undoubtedly goes into the weekend as the favourite. His form over the course of the season is second to none. He deservedly starts the Grand Final weekend with a 20-point margin over second-placed Chaz Mostert as a result of being the highest-ranked driver after Sandown. This 20-point buffer could prove vital given how closely Mostert and Feeney have raced throughout The Finals so far.
To claim his maiden championship, Feeney needs more of what we’ve seen the majority of this year. Superior qualifying performances that then allow him to command the race or at least finish top three.
If he finds himself behind Mostert and/or Brown, though, he’ll have to pass them, which is when the pressure will mount. Interestingly, Feeney is yet to complete an overtake on Mostert at all this year. He’s also only overtaken Brown twice (one of which while on vastly different strategies in Tasmania).
Feeney’s path to the championship: Qualifying at the front.
Chaz Mostert
Mostert’s the in-form driver of The Finals Series: winning three of the four races has positioned him with a genuine opportunity to win his first championship. The Adelaide circuit’s similarities to both the Gold Coast and Sandown will favour Mostert. He had superior speed at both those events which should translate to Adelaide, meaning he’ll likely be as fast as anyone.
His concern will be reliability. Both he and teammate Ryan Wood have been affected by mechanical issues this season, far more often than their Red Bull Ampol rivals. Mechanical issues this weekend will likely mean season over. The outcome of Friday’s 100km sprint race will also be heavily dependent on each pit crew’s ability to change tyres as quickly as possible. The Walkinshaw Andretti United crew struggled early in the season but their recent form is much improved.
Mostert’s path to the championship: Zero mechanical or pit lane issues.
Will Brown
It’s Will Brown’s final chance to snap out of his near-season-long qualifying funk this weekend in Adelaide. The reality is, if he can’t qualify near the front, his championship hopes will be squarely in the hands of others.
While he ranks #1 for passing cars this season, moving from 15th (his average Finals qualifying position) to fifth isn’t going to be enough. He needs to be passing Feeney and Mostert for race wins. Given he hasn’t finished a race in front of both Feeney and Mostert in his last 19 attempts, starting as close to them as possible is key.
He’s the reigning champion, it would be foolish to write him off. But Feeney and Mostert will take some beating, especially with Brown’s 35-point deficit.
Brown’s path to the championship: Starting within sight of Feeney and Mostert.
Kai Allen
Kai Allen heads to Adelaide as the almighty underdog. He needs something extraordinary to happen in order to claim what would be an astonishing championship win. His speed throughout the year hasn’t been strong enough to suggest he could win with speed alone. He’s only qualified in front of all of his championship combatants on one occasion and never beaten all three in the same race. Plus he’s never overtaken Broc Feeney in a race and only once overtaken Mostert.
That begs the question: is Allen even worthy of being in the Final Four? My view is absolutely! All 24 drivers have competed season-long with the same rule book. He’s simply done a better job than 20 others, rightfully earning himself a Final Four spot.
His secret weapon this weekend is the fact he’s got nothing to lose. That affords him the opportunity to take a risk with strategy and potentially catch some Safety Car luck, or he stays true to what got him to the Grand Final: consistently running in the top eight and scoring enough points to capitalise should his more fancied rivals find trouble.
Allen’s path to the championship: Be close enough to capitalise on any mayhem up front.
So, who wins?
It’s hard to go past Feeney based on all the numbers and his 20-point head start. But Mostert has come good right when it matters, and in the clutch moment, his 379 races of experience may prove the difference from the driver's seat. Conversely, it could be won or lost in the pit lane where Feeney’s Red Bull Ampol team are the best in the business, having won countless championships.
There’s a great saying that is particularly relevant this weekend: “When the pressure is on, you don’t rise to the occasion, you sink to the level of your preparation.” Best of luck to the Final Four, and may the best driver and team win!
Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.
The 2025 Repco Supercars Finals Series concludes at the bp Adelaide Grand Final on November 27-30. Tickets for the event are on sale now.
