Expert Analysis: Finals Drivers' strengths and weaknesses revealed

This is an exclusive pre-event Supercars.com column by championship-winning Race Engineer Scott Sinclair. Sinclair will preview and debrief each round of the 2025 Repco Supercars Championship from his own perspective.

Seven drivers are left vying for the final four Grand Final spots. It’s the semi-final at Sandown, and the pressure is real. Let’s take a look at each driver's strengths and weaknesses ahead of this weekend's races.

1st) Broc Feeney: The Qualifying King

Broc Feeney’s the best qualifier by a long way in 2025. His qualifying average of 3.2 is under half that of the next best (Cam Waters, 7.1). And when Feeney qualifies at the front, he stays there, converting 73% of his top four starts into podiums so far this year.

But it’s his numbers when he doesn’t start at the front which exposes his weakness. Only one of his 23 Gen3 race wins has come from outside the first two rows on the grid. And surprisingly, none of his 43 Gen3 podiums have come from beyond sixth on the grid. If he doesn’t qualify well, he doesn’t typically impact the race.

Fortunately, his form at Sandown is very strong, which combined with his #1 overall ranking for race pace this year should help him secure his place in the final 4.

His path to the Grand Final: Incident-free qualifying so he can do what he does best: race at the front.

Raise the alarm if: His current run of 56 consecutive race finishes on the lead lap comes to an end.

2nd) Chaz Mostert: The Recoverer

Chaz Mostert’s ability to get to the front no matter where he starts is his superpower. 48% of his 27 Gen3 podiums have come from starting outside the top four, the highest of anyone. He’s ranked #1 for race pace relative to his qualifying speed, meaning he can recover when he doesn’t qualify well.

Consistency and mechanical reliability have been his weaknesses this season. He’s ranked 19th for qualifying consistency and last for race consistency. No one has had more inconsistent race results than him this year. He’ll also need to break his trend of struggling at events following podium appearances after his recent wins on the Gold Coast. Reliability is also a concern, contributing to him being ranked 16th for total laps completed this year.

If reliability doesn’t play a part, his proven pace over the longer races should offset any struggles in qualifying and keep him in contention.

His path to the Grand Final: Qualify inside the Top 10 and his race pace should secure him a spot.

Raise the alarm if: Reliability issues strike.

3rd) Matt Payne: Captain Consistent

The longer format races at Sandown should favour Matt Payne. In races 200km or more, he has the best average finishing position. His consistency overall is his superpower this season, having avoided reliability issues and on-track incidents. He’s only had one result outside the top 12 for the entire year. This, and his ability to overtake in the races, has meant his ‘positions gained per race’ ranking has improved from 18th last year to third this year.

One of his few weaknesses is his qualifying performance on the Dunlop Super Soft tyre, the compound to be used during Saturday’s race. He’ll need to better his Super Soft qualifying average of 10.4 to ensure he gets into the Shootout.

His path to the Grand Final: Pretend it's just another race, which will see him stay out of trouble and finish near the front.

Raise the alarm if: His teammate Kai Allen out-qualifies him and he’s forced to double stack during the race.

4th) Cam Waters: Fast, then Not Fast

Qualifying has been the barometer for Cam Waters this year. When he starts on the first two rows, he usually finishes there, but his qualifying inconsistency, ranked 23rd overall, has meant he’s had to do more racing from the back half of the field than he’d like.

In the race, his outright speed has been very strong, ranking second overall. His issue has been maintaining it throughout the race. He’s the worst-ranked of the finals contenders for tyre degradation.

He needs to start in front of Payne and Mostert and then hold them off. Starting in front will be helped by his ability to improve his qualifying position in the Shootout (#1 ranked), but tyre life may ultimately be the difference between progressing to the Grand Final or not.

5th) Will Brown: The Professor of Overtaking 

Will Brown is the master of moving through the field in the races. He’s ranked #1 for overtakes, and has made more positions from start to finish during the races (106) than any of the other finals contenders this year.

Qualifying’s his well-documented weakness this year, but so far he’s overcome it thanks to his ability to move forward in the races. While that strategy might not hold up at the Grand Final when the stakes are raised, he does like Sandown, having been on pole the last two years. This weekend could be his qualifying return to form weekend, which, combined with his usual race performance, will be enough to secure his ticket to the Grand Final.

His path to the Grand Final: Starting both races inside the top 10 — he’ll be able to move to the front from there.

Raise the alarm if: He hasn’t moved himself into the Top 4 of points by the end of Saturday’s race.

6th) Kai Allen: The Rookie Wildcard

We’ve seen the best of Kai Allen this season when he’s run alternate race strategies. Placing him in clean air, allowing him to manage his own race, has been key to him remaining in championship contention. He’s ranked #4 for lap consistency this season, which, when combined with a now proven ability to save fuel, could be his joker card should strategy play a part at Sandown.

He’s a rookie with nothing to lose, but getting into the top four is going to be difficult without a couple of season-best qualifying results or Safety Cars opening up the strategy window. He’s also got a more fancied teammate in Matt Payne who you’d expect to be given priority should the team be forced to make a decision between drivers.

His path to the Grand Final: A couple of perfectly timed Safety Cars.

Raise the alarm if: He can’t find clear air in the races.

7th) Thomas Randle: The Disruptor? 

Thomas Randle is going to need something out of the ordinary if he’s to progress to Adelaide still in contention. A maiden race win would secure him a spot, but given he’s without a top five race finish in the last 18 races, he may have to try and disrupt the race in some way if he doesn’t have the pace.

The quality of the remaining seven drivers means it’s unlikely that there’ll be enough self-inflicted drama for three cars to knock themselves out of contention. Randle will likely have to force his way in if he’s to progress to the Grand Final.

His path to the Grand Final: A maiden race win or lots of trouble for those ahead.

Raise the alarm if: He matches his Gen3 Sandown qualifying average of 15th.

My Grand Final Four prediction

So, who makes it to the Grand Final?

I’m tipping Feeney and Brown to progress based on their historical Sandown form. Then it’s Payne, Mostert, and Waters fighting it out for the final two spots. Based on the race pace each has shown over the course of the year, I think it's Waters who just misses out.

But don’t forget the 'win and you’re in' factor. A win from any of the finals contenders guarantees them a spot in the final four. Should one of the less fancied drivers achieve that on Saturday, Sunday will be all the more exciting.

Scott Sinclair is one of the most respected voices in pit lane, famously engineering James Courtney to the 2010 championship with Dick Johnson Racing. Sinclair also spent stints at the Holden Racing Team and Kelly Racing, spent time on the Supercars Commission, and recently joined Supercars as a data analyst.

The 2025 Repco Supercars Finals Series continues with the Semi Final round at the Penrite Oil Sandown 500 from November 14-16. Tickets for the event are on sale now.