Skaife’s bold Bathurst prediction

Supercars legend and commentator Mark Skaife believes a 2:02s lap is possible at Bathurst next weekend, if track conditions are favourable.

The current Supercars record stands at 2:03.8312s, set by Scott McLaughlin’s Shell V-Power Racing Ford Falcon FG X in the ARMOR ALL Top 10 Shootout in 2017.

Last year the fastest time of the weekend was David Reynolds’ 2:04.0589s Shootout lap, with all sessions having been wet prior to Friday afternoon’s qualifying.

Weather also threatens to impact some track running this year, with showers among the long-range forecasts for the weekend. 

Records though have tumbled at several circuits in 2019, thanks in part to the introduction of the Ford Mustang and subsequent improvements to the ZB Commodore.

“It’s going to be very fast,” Skaife told Supercars.com.

“If you could say [conditions are] exactly the same as last year, will the cars be faster? Yes. How much faster? One to one-and-a-half seconds I would think.”

Asked if that means a 2:02 is possible, Skaife added: “I reckon that would be highly likely if the conditions are like-for-like, year-on-year.

“But the hard part with Bathurst is you don’t know year-on-year what actually happens to the grip level.

“We often forget that it’s a public road, so climatic conditions, how clean the track is when you start the weekend, heaps of things have a bearing on what actually happens as a consequence.”

McLaughlin, who has scored 14 ARMOR ALL Poles already this season, expects his record to fall, but doubts the 2:02s bracket will be reached even with dry running.

“I think it’ll be faster if we have a dry lead-up,” said McLaughlin, whose 2017 effort was dubbed the ‘Lap of the Gods 2’, following Greg Murphy’s then record-breaking effort from 2003.

“I don’t know by how much, but we’ve beaten nearly every record [this year], someone has at some stage everywhere we’ve gone.

“It’ll be interesting. I think it’d be there or thereabouts. I’d be very surprised if it’s a 2, but maybe a mid-3.”

Making a mark

The chase for the lap record has taken on extra significance following news that Supercars will trim downforce and horsepower levels for 2020, inevitably decreasing performance.

In a bid to improve the racing, downforce is expected to be trimmed by as much as 15 percent, while around 15bhp of the current 650bhp will be lost due to changes aimed at cost reduction.

While the exact impact those changes will have on lap times is unclear, four-time Bathurst winner turned commentator Murphy believes they will add to the spectacle in 2020.

“I don’t think it’ll lose anything,” he said of the changes in a Facebook Live preview of Bathurst.

“If you talk to anyone in the pitlane, drivers, engineers, team owners, everyone knows it, [they agree] we need to get away from the [aero] sensitivity the cars have at the moment.

“We need to reduce it so it’s not so sensitive anymore and put it back in the hands of the drivers.

“If the cars are moving around and sliding around and you don’t have to be so pin-point accurate and precise with the car, I think it’s going to be more exciting.

“Getting rid of a bit of horsepower, as long as everyone has got the same, that’s all we’re looking for."

Mustang drivers have scored 19 of the 24 ARMOR ALL Poles so far in 2019, with McLaughlin on 14 joined by Chaz Mostert (3), Fabian Coulthard (1) and Cameron Waters (1).

Commodores runners have the remaining six, thanks to Shane van Gisbergen (2), David Reynolds (1), Jamie Whincup (1) and Mark Winterbottom (1).