4 races to go: The factors that will decide who wins 2024 title
Will Brown is in the box seat to win the 2024 Repco Supercars Championship, but two street circuits suggest there's more drama to come, taking the title fight down to the wire.
After the first three rounds, it looked like an all-Triple Eight championship battle would be the story of the season, with Brown and Broc Feeney winning six of the first eight races, and putting breathing space back to Chaz Mostert.
However, a mid-season Mostert surge and Triple Eight winless streak brought the Ford star back into contention, before the margins blew out again across the enduros.
Regardless, with the Boost Mobile Gold Coast 500 and VAILO Adelaide 500 to come, we're now set for a thrilling run home, with a number of key factors emerging that could shape who ends up champion.
The numbers
The points picture is firmly in Brown's hands, with the Queenslander 204 points ahead of Feeney, and 225 ahead of Mostert. It's far from over, with a maximum of 600 left to win, meaning Cam Waters is also a mathematical chance. However, Brown could seal the title on Sunday. The onus is on Feeney, Mostert and Waters to claw back ground on Brown on the Gold Coast, in order to set up a nervous battle in Adelaide. Feeney needs to claw back 51 points per race on Brown, Mostert 57, and Waters 117. Winning all four races won't be enough for either driver; they need Brown to stumble. if Feeney wins all four remaining races, Brown can finish sixth in each race and still be champion. If Mostert is perfect, seventh is Brown's target. However, Brown isn't going to lie down, instead insisting "defensive" driving. may lead to mistakes.
Street circuit form
The most immediate factor in the run-in will be on display from this weekend, being street circuit form. Waters won on the Gold Coast and Adelaide last year, while Mostert is a two-time Gold Coast winner. Additionally, Mostert and Feeney split the Adelaide wins in 2022. To this year, Waters and Mostert were the benchmarks in Townsville, after Triple Eight bossed the Albert Park sprints. There is a big question mark over Brown and Feeney's Gold Coast form; in seven starts at the Surfers Paradise circuit, Brown's results read DNF, 11th, eighth, 24th, 11th, 11th and 11th. Feeney's record is no better, his results reading 14th, DNF, 14th and eighth. They'll be well aware of that, as will Triple Eight, which didn't fire a defining shot at Townsville in July, or the final two rounds last year.
Big pressure performance
The best athletes find ways to absorb pressure and turn it into performance. As the famous saying goes, "pressure is a privilege," so the top four need to minimise mistakes. Make no mistake, the Gold Coast qualifying sessions are the most important of the season so far. The last six Gold Coast races in a row have been won by a car starting on the front row of the grid, with the race winner starting on pole in 17 of the last 26 completed races. Kerb strikes caught drivers out in qualifying and Shootouts last year, and it cost them in the race. Look no further than Brown, who clouted the wall in the Shootout. Then, when it comes to the race itself, how desperate will the drivers be if their chief rival is right behind them, or ahead of them?
Car impact
Drivers aside, the teams in question need to get it right. Triple Eight was the form team through the enduros, while Walkinshaw Andretti United and Tickford Racing didn't have the pace. Triple Eight will be wary of their subdued performance in Townsville, where qualifying let them down, leading to Brown's shock crash in the Sunday race. Meanwhile, Sandown and Bathurst were hammer blows for Mostert, who was 63 points behind Brown after the Tasmania opener. WAU has to have the best car on the Gold Coast to put Triple Eight under any pressure this weekend. Crucially, we're back on the Soft tyre for the first time since Sydney, and guess who led the way that weekend?
Teammate influence
Triple Eight has two drivers in the fight, which can be both a positive and a negative. Jamie Whincup has always maintained that both drivers will have equal treatment, so it will be down to Brown and Feeney on track, and who does the better job. Mostert, meanwhile, has a rookie teammate in Ryan Wood who has never raced at Surfers Paradise before. While Wood has improved in leaps and bounds throughout the year, Mostert may have to take it to Triple Eight on his own. The joker in the pack is Waters, whose teammate Thomas Randle has been a fine foil this year, battering Feeney in Tasmania and taking it to Brown on a number of occasions. When Waters won on the Gold Coast last year, Randle was fourth. When Waters won in Townsville in July, Randle was fifth. As Triple Eight's teammates squabble, and Mostert fights, Randle could prove Waters' ace-in-the-hole.
Craig Lowndes' verdict
In his exclusive Supercars.com column, three-time Supercars champion and four-time Gold Coast race winner Craig Lowndes said: "You just can’t sit back around this place. You have to attack the weekend. If you race with a defensive mindset, you will be off the pace. So, when it comes to mental focus, I believe the Gold Coast is among the top three toughest circuits we go to. Because we’re towards the end of the championship, everyone can see the finish line, and there’s always plenty at stake... This is such an important round in the story of this year's championship. Will Brown is 204 points up the road, but at a place like the Gold Coast, you can win or lose so much."
