No clear favourite: Where everyone's Supercars Finals hopes rest
Four rounds into the 2026 Repco Supercars Championship and the pecking order is now beginning to become established.
Whether they're established at the front of the field, embroiled in the mid-pack squabble, or down at the lower end of the grid, the pathways to Finals are now being made apparent.
With five rounds until the Repco Sprint Cup is crowned, and seven until the Finals field is set at the end of the Ryco Enduro Cup, there are still thousands of kilometres to be raced and points to be scored.
However, the gap between the contenders and the battlers has widened through a frantic ITM New Zealand Double Header, with some fancied runners needing to come home strong leading into the enduros.
Ahead of this weekend's Tyrepower Tasmania Super 440, Supercars.com ranks where all 24 drivers' Finals hopes lie.
The big three
Broc Feeney, Brodie Kostecki, Matt Payne
The story of the Repco Sprint Cup to date has been the form of Broc Feeney, Brodie Kostecki, and Matt Payne. The trio aren't just the top three in points, but also for wins, poles, podiums, qualifying average, and race finishing average. On every metric that matters, the three Ford stars are the cream of the crop, and it doesn't look like changing any time soon. The focus now turns to who can begin to stretch an advantage in the closest early title battle since 2017, and there is no clear answer as of yet. Feeney has always made the most of the package available to him, despite Triple Eight's Ford learning curve, Kostecki has been fast at all four rounds this season, and Payne's field-topping qualifying speed was converted into two crushing wins in Christchurch.
Almost there
Cam Waters, Kai Allen, Ryan Wood
The chasing pack is led by two Fords and the lead Toyota. Cam Waters' 2026 campaign to date has been a head scratcher, a surprising lack of qualifying pace cancelled out by scintillating race speed, and a driver who is arguably driving better than ever. At 138 points behind, he is well in the game should the top three stumble at any stage. 197 and 199 points off the lead respectively are Kai Allen and Ryan Wood, whose stars have continued to rise exponentially in 2026. For Allen, a maiden win in Christchurch was richly deserved, whilst Wood has carried the Toyota program on his shoulders, claiming five of their six podiums to date, including a fairytale win on home soil in Taupo. Both young guns are now proven threats in the category against drivers with far more experience, and will be ones to watch was the year goes on.
Finals fight
Anton De Pasquale, James Golding, Will Brown, Jack Le Brocq, Chaz Mostert
As it stands, it looks as though there will be five drivers battling it out for the final four spots inside the Finals bubble. Of the five, Anton De Pasquale has the most security at 94 points above the cut-line, and is the only driver of the group to have won a race this year. The biggest surprise packet of the season, James Golding has been a revelation at BRT, and is also in a position of relative safety at 84 points clear, and could very well climb the ladder if his current trajectory continues. The last two Supercars champions are in positions they'd rather not be in, with Will Brown just 37 points clear of the cut-line, whilst defending champion Chaz Mostert is 24 points outside the bubble, a penalty in Christchurch proving costly. The meat in the sandwich is Jack Le Brocq, however he will be keen to see MSR's recent trend of fading in the second half of a season reversed given the company he's surrounded by.
Sinking, need to swim
Thomas Randle, Andre Heimgartner, Jayden Ojeda, Cameron Hill, David Reynolds
The next group of drivers are all separated by just 60 points, however range from anywhere between 156 and 216 points away from the Finals bubble after just four rounds. With 315 points (including bonuses) available across the remaining five Repco Sprint Cup events, any potential turnaround needs to happen sooner rather than later. Heading this group is Thomas Randle, who save for a podium on Grand Prix Sunday in Melbourne has had a tough run to start the year, whilst at the tail is David Reynolds, who stumbled in New Zealand. Both have teammates in Waters and De Pasquale who are comfortably in the Finals picture. BJR teammates Andre Heimgartner and Cameron Hill will be hoping that their new Toyotas continue to get faster through the year, whilst top rookie Jayden Ojeda has quietly surged from 22nd to 14th in points inside the last seven races.
Enduro Cup miracle needed
Zach Bates, Declan Fraser, Macauley Jones, Aaron Cameron, Rylan Gray, Cooper Murray, Jackson Walls, Jobe Stewart
From 17th and beyond, the going gets considerably tougher for Zach Bates, Declan Fraser, Macauley Jones, Aaron Cameron, Rylan Gray, Cooper Murray, Jackson Walls, and Jobe Stewart. Though all eight drivers were likely never serious Finals contenders pre-season, for Cameron it's a bitter pill to swallow given his stunning qualifying form to start the year. At 260 points behind the Finals bubble and beyond, all eight drivers will be relying on an upset Ryco Enduro Cup win, and the automatic Finals berth that comes with it, to launch into Finals. That's not to say it's impossible, Murray finishing second in last year's Enduro Cup from a similarly low position alongside Stewart.
