Who's in, who's out? Way too early 2026 Supercars Finals prediction

It's never too early to talk Finals. Given two Supercars champions are currently at risk of missing out, it's going to become a major talking point as the season progresses.

The current top three are covered by 46 points, making for the closest top three through four rounds since 2017. However, they have a buffer to the Finals bubble, where some big names are fighting for spots.

The current top 10 has eight 2025 Finals drivers. Supercars.com predicted pre-season that three 2025 Finals drivers would miss out.

That prediction was bold in theory, but when you look at one name who's outside the top 10, you really do get a sense of just how competitive 2026 has been, and could further turn out to be.

Who's currently in?

Broc Feeney, Brodie Kostecki and Matt Payne have big margins to the bubble, while Cam Waters, Kai Allen and Ryan Wood are all 100-plus points clear. Anton De Pasquale, James Golding, Will Brown and Jack Le Brocq are all running the gauntlet.

Who's currently out?

The big fish outside the top 10 is reigning champion Chaz Mostert. It's always a big story when the reigning NRL or AFL premier misses Finals the following season. Could it happen to Mostert?

From there, it gets tough. 2025 Semi Finalist Thomas Randle is already 156 points out, with Andre Heimgartner 162 down.

What happened after Round 4 last year?

Cameron Hill and Andre Heimgartner were in the top 10, with Anton De Pasquale and Kai Allen on the outside. De Pasquale and Allen came in, with Hill and Heimgartner dropping out.

De Pasquale was 12th, 46 points out of the 10. Allen was 19th, a whopping 195 points down. De Pasquale went on the reach the Elimination Final, with Allen a surprise Grand Finalist.

Hill and Heimgartner came agonisingly close last season. Every race and point matters. Deny it as much as you want to, but after the scenes of Bathurst last year, good luck arguing it.

The leader was Broc Feeney, who was 355 points up.

How does it look after Round 4 this year?

Feeney is the leader again, albeit by a reduced 330 points. Brodie Kostecki and Matt Payne are looking good, either side of 300 points to the good.

As he was in 2025, Cam Waters is fourth. But where he was 264 points up last year, he's a reduced 192 points up in 2026. James Golding is eighth, 84 points clear. The Blanchard Racing Team recruit is 10 points behind De Pasquale.

The biggest losers are Brown and Mostert, who have had big turnarounds in the wrong direction. 12 months ago, Brown was third and 322 points clear. This year, the 2024 champ is ninth, only 37 clear.

Reigning champion Mostert is 11th, 23 points down. Remove the Sydney disqualification, and Mostert would still only be 29 points clear of elimination.

Don't forget this curve ball...

Add to the mix, the Ryco Enduro Cup winner also gets a Finals spot. If that is a driver outside the top 10, then the stakes become even higher.

Cooper Murray and David Reynolds, who sit 22nd and 16th through four rounds, ended up second and fourth in the 2025 Enduro Cup.

It's the greatest unknown, and given 600 points are up for grabs in two races, a standout performance or two — coupled with disasters for top 10 incumbents — could flip the entire script.

The prediction

The top seven after Round 4 last year all reached the Finals. Hill and Heimgartner dropped out, with De Pasquale and Allen racing their way in. For how competitive 2026 has been so far, the gap from 12th down is quite alarming. Given Wood's form and his own championship experience, Mostert should make it in, meaning someone misses out.

Le Brocq has been a revelation, but as rivals continued to improve, he dropped from sixth to 10th in two rounds. Given then-Matt Stone Racing driver Hill missed out last year, the jury is out on whether MSR can keep Le Brocq in contention.

Randle and Heimgartner are currently outside chances. Randle has been undone by qualifying in 2026, while Heimgartner and Brad Jones Racing are still grappling with the new Supra. Another round of lost points relative to 10th, and it gets even harder.

The hardest luck story is Aaron Cameron, who is ranked fourth in qualifying, yet sits 21st and 305 points outside Finals contention. Of those below Mostert, he has the most pace to burn, but looks to be too far behind already.

Prediction-wise after Round 4, it's Mostert in, Le Brocq out, but there's a long, long way to go. De Pasquale, Golding and Brown are nowhere near safety. Given Allen's heroics from 2025, Randle and Heimgartner can't be counted out either.

On current form, given his newfound speed in Christchurch and his brilliant 2025 Enduro Cup, we're tipping Payne to lead the field into the Finals. Feeney has the best race finishing average of the current top three, and while Kostecki has the most wins, Payne has the best qualifying average. That could be telling come cut-off time.

De Pasquale is set to shoulder General Motors' hopes, and we're also tipping Brown and Mostert's experience to carry them through, alongside Triple Eight's Ford improvements and Toyota's development curve. Allen, Wood, Waters and Golding are also on track.

Supercars.com's predicted 2026 Finals field

After Round 4, ITM Christchurch Super 440

2026 Repco Supercars Championship Finals race

After Round 4, ITM Christchurch Super 440

What is the Finals, and how do you make it?

The 2026 Repco Supercars Championship will be held over 37 races across 14 rounds, in three different segments: Sprint Cup, Enduro Cup, and the Finals.

Finals for the 2026 championship occur post-Bathurst over the last three rounds at the Gold Coast, Sandown and Adelaide.

Only 10 drivers will be eligible for the Finals based on championship points from the regular season, which is all 30 races up to and including Bathurst, and 'Cup' winning eligibility.

What does that mean? Simply, the winners of the Sprint Cup and the Enduro Cup each have automatic entry into the Finals, and receive 25 bonus points to start the first round of the Finals with.

The remaining positions for the Finals are based on regular season championship points.

Each round is worth 300 points. There will also be five bonus points for the driver who sets the fastest lap in all Sprint Cup races. The fastest lap is only eligible for bonus points if the driver finishes in the top 15. These contribute to championship points for that round.