Walk-off wins, elimination shocks: Five bold Sandown predictions

It seems fitting that the Repco Supercars Champioship will host its first ever Semi Final in the middle of footy heartland at the Penrite Oil Sandown 500.

The 500km endurance classic may be gone, but in it's place will come some of the most high stakes racing seen this season, as seven Finals Drivers will be whittled down to the four who will duke it out at the bp Adelaide Grand Final.

For one of the most historic venues in the sport, the new way of racing promises to bring the kind of intensity and action that has rarely been seen before on the 3.1km circuit.

And, with the fickle Melbourne weather potentially having something to say over the course of the weekend, who knows what is in store of the two 81-lap journies.

Supercars.com run through five bold predictions for the Semi Final at the Penrite Oil Sandown 500, brought to you by Schick.

We will see the closest ever finish at Sandown

It currently stands at 0.1586s, a record that has stood since 2006 when Jason Bright fended off a hard charging Rick Kelly for the Sandown 500. This year, we'e seen two of the three closest finishes in the history of the sport, Cam Waters pipping Broc Feeney by just 0.03s at Sydney, and Feeney again being on the wrong side of a 0.05s margin to Matt Payne in Tasmania. We haven't seen a finish as close since, but with the intensity set to ramp up at Sandown, we think we could be in for another barnburner.

One team will get both cars into the final four

Of the seven Finals Drivers remaining at Sandown, six will have to battle with their teammates to keep their seasons alive. The Red Bull Ampol Racing duo of Broc Feeney and Will Brown, Penrite Racing's Matt Payne and Kai Allen, and Tickford's Cam Waters and Thomas Randle will all be vying for the four Grand Final berths. As much as basic math suggests that it's a good chance that at least one pair of teammates will feature in Adelaide, execution must be pin-point to make it happen.

Double stacking will cost a driver a Grand Final spot

The pre-Bathurst change in Safety Car procedures saw the Full Course Yellow period removed, and brought back the risk of double stacking. Whilst we didn't see double stacking play out too much at the Great Race, a spate of early Safety Car interventions in the Gold Coast opener caught out several. Chaz Mostert was blocked as he attempted to leave his pit bay, whilst Payne's day was ruined when he clattered into Mostert on exit. With seasons on the line at Sandown, and another tight pit lane to deal with, any double stack dramas could well have massive implications.

A Finals Driver already knocked out will score a podium/win

Whilst there are seven drivers who are still in contention, a lot of talk after the Gold Coast surrounded the three eliminations. Chief among the potential spoilers is Ryan Wood, who has already made clear his intentions to do to whatever it takes to help teammate Mostert claim an elusive title. Brodie Kostecki will also have a point to prove after his shock Gold Coast exit, whilst Anton De Pasquale was smarting after a post-race penalty dropped him out of the Finals battle on Sunday at Surfers Paradise. Don't discount any of these three settling some scores with title hopes dashed.

Someone below the cut will win their way to Adelaide

Reigning champion Will Brown, Kai Allen, and Thomas Randle enter the Penrite Oil Sandown 500 with work to do. The margins to the cut-line are slightly bigger than they were on the Gold Coast, Brown 12 points outside, Allen 21 points away, and Randle with the most work to do, being 30 down. However, the two Mustang pilots fought their way inside the bubble on the Gold Coast, and Sandown is one of Brown's strongest circuits on the tour. Brown will be eager to win his way to the final four, whilst for Allen and Randle, rarely has a potential first career win had such value.

The views in this article do not necessarily express the opinions of Supercars, teams or drivers.

The 2025 Repco Supercars Finals Series continues with the Semi Final round at the Penrite Oil Sandown 500 from November 14-16. Tickets for the event are on sale now.