Strategy Guide: The possible race strategies for Bathurst

The Mountain is calling again, and drivers and teams will be put to the test on strategy at Australia's biggest race, the Repco Bathurst 1000.

After three days of frantic action and big incidents, Bathurst will explode into life for the annual 1000km race, which is set to feature more drama, Safety Cars and strategic moves.

Supercars.com explains the keys to strategy for Sunday's 161-lap classic, and the fastest way to the finish.

What tyres do we have?

Dunlop’s Hard tyre compound, which was used at the Thrifty Bathurst 500 in February, is back. Already this weekend, we've seen plenty of carnage as drivers push the limits. Each car will have 48 Hard tyres (12 sets) for qualifying and the race. Each car also has 40 (10 sets) wet weather tyres, and eight (two sets) intermediate tyres for the race only.

Expected strategies

There’s no greater key to strategy than a fast race car, but teams will be looking to make use of time advantage by pitting under Safety Car. Note, a driver change should take anywhere between 19 and 23 seconds, with a 3.8L/s fuel rate to lend itself to 30-plus second pit stops.

Also, teams will be planning to get their minimum co-driver laps (54) done as quickly as possible, likely by lap 101 at the latest. The big change for 2024 is main drivers must start the race.

Last year, the top five placed cars started with their co-drivers. The 2023 race, held on the Soft tyre, was dictated by tyre wear and the need to conserve tyres. There were only three Safety Cars, the last on lap 70, with eight of the top 10 making seven stops. Because of the ill-timed Safety Cars, a lot of co-drivers did more than the minimum laps required.

There are three primary ways home; one unlikely, one likely planned, and one most likely thanks to the probability of Safety Cars.

A four-stop is possible, but highly unlikely, given cars require constant fuel saving and 32-lap stints, plus no Safety Cars. While there is little tyre degradation, co-drivers would also be likely to complete over 60 laps.

In a perfect world, teams will be planning a five-stop strategy, which comprises six equal 27-lap stints. This even strategy minimises effect of degradation and has minimum co-driver laps covered.

The even strategy could be run with main drivers starting, handing to co-drivers, back to main, then back to co-drivers, before main drivers double-stint home. Alternatively, main drivers could start, co-drivers double stint, then main drivers triple stint.

Teams could also opt to get co-driver laps completed as soon as possible, pitting from as early as lap 17, getting the co-driver in for two 27-lap stints, and then main drivers put in a triple stint home.

However, this is Bathurst. Six or more stops is the most likely scenario given the probability of Safety Cars and advantages of pitting under Safety Car. Teams will still ensure co-driver laps are completed by lap 101, which gets teams home on one more stop.

Key

#) Pit stop count

a) Six equal 27-lap stints, but means co-drivers not done until lap 108

b) Co-driver laps done as early as possible

c) Short stints early, co-driver laps done by lap 101

d) 2023 race-winning strategy (Safety Cars on lap 26, 38 and 70)

Things to note

These Gen3 cars have a 133L fuel tank, and burn on 4.5L on average per lap. To get home without stopping again, the critical lap is 131. Given the lack of degradation versus 2023, fuel performance will be a major talking point come Sunday.

There is no compulsory brake rotor and/or pad change for the race, but expect teams to do one or two changes through the race.

Safety Car procedural changes from Sandown will mean cars are more likely to double stack, but could still be rewarded by doing the extra lap if they can avoid being picked up by Safety Car. Cars will have to abide by the 80km/h limiter, but importantly, there is no minimum lap count to keep the limiter on.

Safety Car probability

The Safety Car was first introduced to Bathurst in 1987, since then there have only been two races (1989 and 1991) where it has not been called upon at some stage.

The most Safety Car periods in a Bathurst race was 13 in 2000 and the most number of laps affected under the Safety Car was 45 in 2006.

Last year, there were three Safety Car periods totalling nine laps, in a race dominated by tyre wear and marbles offline.

Still, it's important to note that in the last four Bathurst 1000 races, 18 of the 34 Safety Car periods have been after lap 100.

What about the weather?

In a win for fans, Sunday's action is set to be clear, albeit party cloudy. There is a slight chance of a shower around the Blue Mountains, but isn't expected to reach Bathurst.