Five Sydney factors which could define 2021 title fight

A 276-point lead, at any stage, should seem like a safety net.

No driver has ever ceded a 200-point mid-season lead to lose the title, and on paper, Shane van Gisbergen looks a sure thing to add to his 2016 championship.

However, van Gisbergen went winless across the two Sydney Motorsport Park events last year as Scott McLaughlin and the Shell V-Power Racing Team ran rampant.

Never before has Supercars staged four consecutive events at the same venue in a season.

That will be the case from this weekend, with SMSP to be the centre of Australian motorsport.

Jamie Whincup will need to find his best form to topple his teammate and head into retirement as an eight-time series champion.

Cameron Waters, Chaz Mostert and Will Davison are over 400 points behind van Gisbergen, but a slip-up at any stage by the series leader could turn the title fight on its head.

With the 2021 Repco Supercars Championship heading towards its climax, Supercars.com highlights five critical Sydney factors that could influence the run home.

Circuit favouring teams

McLaughlin kept his team at the front at SMSP in 2020

Holden leads the all-time head-to head at SMSP, but Fords have had the recent running.

Blue Oval drivers have claimed 12 of the last 16 ARMOR ALL Pole Positions at SMSP.

It’s more even in the win stakes; both manufacturers are split down the middle at seven wins apiece in the last 14 SMSP races.

There’s no doubt the Shell Mustangs - specifically, Scott McLaughlin - were the quicker car across the two SMSP events in 2020.

There are no unknowns here - drivers will be racing on the same circuit four weekends in a row, after all.

Red Bull Ampol Racing has made gains in 2021, regardless of McLaughlin’s absence. It’s whether the team will make enough of a gain to avoid dropping too much ground to its rivals.

Set-ups

Differing set-ups could lead to jumbled grids

Getting the set-up right is always crucial in motorsport, but the margin for error at the high-degradation SMSP is vital.

Any windows of underperformance by teams will allow others to jump right through.

Last year, Triple Eight couldn’t get it right, allowing McLaughlin to jump away to a series lead he wouldn’t surrender.

“There was a whole bunch of other drivers winning and we didn’t do a very good job of picking the right race to get a good result in,” van Gisbergen said of his team’s 2020 Sydney showing.

“We were better than what we showed, but we didn’t go a good job.”

Teammate factor

De Pasquale held out Davison and and Gisbergen at The Bend

Where Davison can make up ground on the two Triple Eight drivers will likely be through teammate Anton De Pasquale.

Where Waters and Mostert have been hurt, and their teams in general, have been their respective teammates’ failures to fight with them at the front.

De Pasquale has been unlucky at times in 2021, but has form at SMSP; he won a Super2 race at the circuit in 2017, and claimed a podium in 2020.

If Shell Mustangs are indeed the cars to beat in Sydney, or this weekend at least, De Pasquale will need to go with Davison if they are any chance to taking points off both van Gisbergen and Whincup.

Additionally, Whincup has already acknowledged van Gisbergen’s big margin, but still harbours hopes of an unprecedented eighth title.

Van Gisbergen has won 11 races to Whincup’s one in 2021, but should Whincup emerge a stronger force at SMSP, there will be some tricky conversations to be had during races.

Even then, the two teammates have proven capable of racing together - look no further than Townsville - but expect the margins to be tighter in Sydney.

Strategy

How will Triple Eight keep its drivers apart?

All four Sydney events will be different with regards to strategy.

Mixed tyre compound racing will feature at the second and fourth events, with the first and third event Dunlop Soft Tyre only rounds.

This weekend’s Bunnings Trade Sydney SuperNight and the BP Ultimate Sydney SuperSprint will both see five sets of the Dunlop Soft compound available to each car from the start of Saturday qualifying.

The ARMOR ALL Sydney SuperNight will see teams handed five sets of event-marked Softs and three sets of Hards.

When we get there, the Beaurepaires Sydney SuperNight - the dual 250km race round - will feature seven sets of Hards and two Super Soft sets. The Super Soft tyres cannot be used in any other session other than the two races.

The Beaurepaires Sydney SuperNight will also see the return of refuelling, which often leads to diverging strategies.

How teams deploy their strategies in certain races, considering the bank of tyres, will prove critical in the results - and perhaps, the title fight.

Winning experience

Whincup hasn't won in Sydney since 2017

Seven active drivers have won races at SMSP; Whincup and van Gisbergen lead the way with four each.

Of the top five drivers in the standings, van Gisbergen hasn’t won at SMSP since 2018, Whincup in 2017, Waters never, Mostert in 2015 and Davison way back in 2008.

On paper, Waters is perhaps the weakest of the five. However, he believes his team has made gains relative to 2020, and facts don't lie - he is the most recent winner in 2021.

So far this season, van Gisbergen has stood up to every challenge presented to him. A core strength of van Gisbergen is his racecraft, being able to risk it all for victory while benching the mental gymnastics of a title fight.

Waters and Mostert have had top five championship finishes, but have never truly been in a title fight. Mostert did go into the 2017 season finale with a mathematical chance of victory, but it never eventuated.

Davison has experience with title fights going down to the wire, but that was over a decade ago. In 2009, Davison - then driving for the Holden Racing Team - pushed Whincup all the way.

The Shell Fords have been getting better event by event, with Davison narrowly missing out on victory in Darwin.

Waters and Mostert have had glimpses of brilliance this season, but select dramas have punctuated their title bids.

Waters lost a combined 191 points to van Gisbergen due to his power steering dramas in Bathurst and Tailem Bend DNF. If he didn’t suffer the dual disasters, he would be just over 200 points down, rather than 412.

Mostert had a throttle drama in the Sandown finale, crashed out in the same Bend race as Waters, and was nowhere in the first Townsville weekend. Add those up, and Mostert dropped 317 points in four races.

Whoever escapes the first Sydney event in better shape than his rivals will likely have a better run towards the Repco Bathurst 1000.

If van Gisbergen has the title done and dusted heading to Mount Panorama, he'll be a relaxed man. However, if he is even just 299 points ahead, it will still be all to play for in Bathurst come December 5.

The 2021 Repco Supercars Championship will continue at this weekend’s Bunnings Trade Sydney SuperNight. Tickets for all four upcoming Sydney events are on sale now.

All sessions will be broadcast live on Fox Sports and streamed via Kayo. The Seven Network will broadcast live from 3:30pm AEDT on Saturday and 12:30pm AEDT on Sunday.